Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Ewekoro, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Ewekoro has 122,414 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.51 GWp of roof capacity. 28% run a generator, and together they spend ₦52.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

122,414

Usable roof area

11.2 km²

2.51 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦52.2bn/yr

42.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ewekoro

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦52.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦52.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.94tn

NPV₦407bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy69.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity293 MWp

Capex₦259bn

Year-one energy value₦152bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.1tn

NPV₦1.11tn

Median IRR77%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ewekoro's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 293 MWp
Capital cost: ₦259bn
Year 1 savings: ₦152bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.11tn
Median IRR: 77%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ewekoro pays back quickly

Of the 119,354 buildings in Ewekoro with a modelled payback, 55.4% pay back inside five years and 24.8% inside three.

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How much of Ewekoro's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ewekoro consume 133 GWh/yr but want 203 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ewekoro

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ewekoro actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 119,354 buildings with a modelled result out of 122,414 in Ewekoro. 92,516 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years29,573 (25%)

Under 5 years66,140 (55%)

Under 7 years92,200 (77%)

Under 10 years105,988 (89%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%104,599 (85%)

Above 15%92,516 (76%)

Above 20%71,667 (59%)

Above 25%41,118 (34%)

CO₂ avoided

111 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

16.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

69.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

176k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ewekoro.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ewekoro

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	64,080	18,183	₦19.6bn	₦19.5bn	25%	4.6 yr
C	33,645	11,337	₦16.9bn	₦16.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	13,428	3,302	₦6.5bn	₦6.46bn	19%	5.6 yr
E	5,646	627	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn	11%	7.9 yr
A	5,615	1,352	₦8.13bn	₦8.12bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	112,334	30,707	₦15.3bn	₦15.2bn	21%	4.9 yr
Commercial General	4,911	2,092	₦11.4bn	₦11.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	3,900	1,379	₦443m	₦443m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	503	260	₦24.2bn	₦24.2bn	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	443	202	₦771m	₦767m	35%	2.9 yr
Worship	239	142	₦108m	₦108m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	58	13	₦21.8m	₦21.8m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	18	4	₦10.4m	₦10.4m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	7	2	₦1.23m	₦1.23m	33%	3.4 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦21.1k	₦21.1k	29%	3.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	39,115	11,956	₦11.2bn	₦11.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	30,938	7,674	₦757m	₦753m	15%	6.6 yr
50 100m2	25,536	7,139	₦2.09bn	₦2.02bn	21%	5.4 yr
30 50m2	17,407	4,562	₦672m	₦672m	19%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	9,025	3,318	₦12bn	₦12bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	393	152	₦25.5bn	₦25.5bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	43,222	13,592	₦25.9bn	₦25.8bn	25%	4.6 yr
Urban Centre	29,488	10,081	₦6.32bn	₦6.31bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	24,108	6,543	₦13.1bn	₦13bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	21,885	3,587	₦4.69bn	₦4.66bn	21%	4.9 yr
Rural	3,711	998	₦2.28bn	₦2.28bn	21%	5.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	31,726	9,082	₦1.81bn	₦1.73bn	19%	5.4 yr
Shed	29,056	7,027	₦732m	₦732m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential	25,306	8,500	₦11.3bn	₦11.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	17,063	4,475	₦958m	₦958m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Informal	5,510	531	₦335m	₦335m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,900	1,379	₦443m	₦443m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	3,679	1,657	₦9.27bn	₦9.23bn	35%	3.1 yr
Apartment	2,515	791	₦168m	₦168m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	1,105	288	₦75.4m	₦75.4m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	838	250	₦1.47bn	₦1.44bn	33%	3.1 yr
Institutional	587	288	₦24.1bn	₦24bn	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial Site	194	83	₦234m	₦231m	35%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	121,013	34,528	₦46.4bn	₦46.2bn
Industrial	1,166	261	₦5.85bn	₦5.85bn
Retail	172	12	₦2.44m	₦2.44m
Commercial	63	0	₦2.44m	₦2.44m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	116,982	32,476	₦16.7bn	₦16.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	4,599	1,929	₦10.8bn	₦10.7bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	833	396	₦24.8bn	₦24.8bn	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	48,891	15,987	₦32.8bn	₦32.7bn
0.0	28,980	7,043	₦732m	₦732m
4.0	21,952	5,521	₦8.63bn	₦8.63bn
2.0	16,342	4,243	₦1.33bn	₦1.24bn
5.0	2,857	913	₦4.21bn	₦4.21bn
1.0	2,840	876	₦152m	₦152m
6.0	552	218	₦4.43bn	₦4.38bn