Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Odeda, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Odeda has 92,613 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.9 GWp of roof capacity. 31% run a generator, and together they spend ₦42bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

92,613

Usable roof area

8.45 km²

1.9 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦42bn/yr

40.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Odeda

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦42bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦40.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.13tn

NPV₦324bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy33.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity149 MWp

Capex₦146bn

Year-one energy value₦116bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.47tn

NPV₦907bn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Odeda's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 149 MWp
Capital cost: ₦146bn
Year 1 savings: ₦116bn/yr
NPV: ₦907bn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Odeda pays back quickly

Of the 90,616 buildings in Odeda with a modelled payback, 58.6% pay back inside five years and 25.4% inside three.

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How much of Odeda's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Odeda consume 68.8 GWh/yr but want 102 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Odeda

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Odeda actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 90,616 buildings with a modelled result out of 92,613 in Odeda. 66,265 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years22,975 (25%)

Under 5 years53,080 (59%)

Under 7 years66,147 (73%)

Under 10 years73,795 (81%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%72,548 (78%)

Above 15%66,265 (72%)

Above 20%56,657 (61%)

Above 25%33,295 (36%)

CO₂ avoided

72.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

19.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

33.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

252k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Odeda.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Odeda

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	31,333	9,530	₦24bn	₦23.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	29,818	8,826	₦3.88bn	₦3.88bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	22,384	8,313	₦13.2bn	₦12.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	9,078	2,323	₦899m	₦899m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	88,386	25,911	₦25.4bn	₦24.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	2,228	1,608	₦11.4bn	₦10.9bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	926	702	₦266m	₦266m	53%	2.1 yr
Anchor	428	322	₦3.96bn	₦3.81bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	362	224	₦731m	₦728m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	226	195	₦156m	₦156m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	27	15	₦83.9m	₦81.7m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	19	10	₦16.5m	₦16.5m	49%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	7	5	₦5.82m	₦5.82m	57%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	3	0	₦6.08m	₦6.08m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦276k	₦276k	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	28,603	10,284	₦14.7bn	₦14.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	24,641	6,381	₦813m	₦625m	7%	13.6 yr
50 100m2	18,929	5,328	₦2.7bn	₦2.59bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	11,412	3,228	₦636m	₦588m	15%	6.9 yr
250 1000m2	8,837	3,650	₦16.9bn	₦16.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	191	121	₦6.28bn	₦5.71bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	33,261	10,039	₦3.43bn	₦3.43bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	30,696	6,169	₦16.9bn	₦15.7bn	21%	5.4 yr
Urban	23,113	8,381	₦9.93bn	₦9.78bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	5,447	4,343	₦11.7bn	₦11.5bn	65%	1.6 yr
Dense Urban	96	60	₦11.9m	₦11.9m	65%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	20,353	6,168	₦2.92bn	₦2.55bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	19,886	4,179	₦448m	₦448m	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Formal	18,463	5,838	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	18,081	7,251	₦20bn	₦19.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	7,497	1,151	₦366m	₦366m	19%	5.1 yr
Apartment	2,829	964	₦226m	₦226m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	1,145	340	₦81.7m	₦81.7m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	930	705	₦270m	₦270m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial	832	779	₦6.87bn	₦6.37bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	707	437	₦3.23bn	₦3.23bn	49%	2.1 yr
Institutional	507	357	₦2.15bn	₦2.13bn	53%	2.1 yr
Unknown	279	123	₦538m	₦538m	31%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	92,603	28,988	₦41.9bn	₦40.4bn
Industrial	10	4	₦99m	₦85.2m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	90,289	27,249	₦27.5bn	₦26.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	1,560	1,217	₦10.2bn	₦9.55bn	57%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	764	526	₦4.3bn	₦4.26bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	29,673	11,128	₦25.8bn	₦25.1bn
4.0	24,132	7,615	₦4.65bn	₦4.57bn
0.0	20,020	4,202	₦454m	₦454m
2.0	13,629	4,140	₦2.84bn	₦2.72bn
1.0	4,243	1,216	₦560m	₦451m
5.0	763	549	₦3.67bn	₦3.66bn
6.0	153	142	₦4.05bn	₦3.55bn