Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Ikenne, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Ikenne has 63,472 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.59 GWp of roof capacity. 47% run a generator, and together they spend ₦83.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

63,472

Usable roof area

7.08 km²

1.59 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦83.9bn/yr

76.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ikenne

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦83.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦81.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.22tn

NPV₦610bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy58.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity262 MWp

Capex₦243bn

Year-one energy value₦146bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.76tn

NPV₦1.06tn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ikenne's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 262 MWp
Capital cost: ₦243bn
Year 1 savings: ₦146bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.06tn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ikenne pays back quickly

Of the 61,980 buildings in Ikenne with a modelled payback, 74.2% pay back inside five years and 37.8% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Ikenne's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ikenne consume 173 GWh/yr but want 232 GWh/yr. The 25% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Ikenne

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ikenne actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 61,980 buildings with a modelled result out of 63,472 in Ikenne. 54,342 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years23,452 (38%)

Under 5 years46,002 (74%)

Under 7 years54,235 (88%)

Under 10 years58,565 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%58,109 (92%)

Above 15%54,342 (86%)

Above 20%48,355 (76%)

Above 25%31,427 (50%)

CO₂ avoided

145 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

33.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

58.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

186k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ikenne.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ikenne

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	37,285	17,637	₦46.9bn	₦45.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	17,518	8,247	₦28.4bn	₦27.3bn	29%	3.6 yr
A	7,934	3,415	₦7.6bn	₦7.42bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	581	240	₦713m	₦713m	25%	4.4 yr
E	154	41	₦274m	₦274m	19%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	58,258	26,183	₦37bn	₦35.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	2,751	1,797	₦22.8bn	₦22.1bn	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,663	1,133	₦511m	₦511m	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	467	275	₦20bn	₦19.5bn	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	161	107	₦819m	₦810m	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	82	32	₦58.4m	₦58.4m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	54	40	₦2.74bn	₦2.33bn	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	32	11	₦31m	₦30.7m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	2	1	₦10.6m	₦10.6m	33%	2.9 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦1.35m	₦1.35m	31%	3.6 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦759k	₦759k	55%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	20,603	9,871	₦18.4bn	₦18.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	14,797	6,188	₦818m	₦750m	19%	5.1 yr
50 100m2	11,449	4,910	₦3.34bn	₦2.57bn	25%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	8,463	3,629	₦864m	₦823m	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	7,813	4,738	₦30.6bn	₦30.2bn	37%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	347	244	₦29.9bn	₦28.6bn	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	35,741	18,692	₦30.6bn	₦29.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
Urban	13,263	6,534	₦37.8bn	₦36.3bn	33%	3.1 yr
Dense Urban	9,345	2,215	₦3.41bn	₦3.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	5,076	2,109	₦12.1bn	₦11.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	47	30	₦3.42m	₦3.42m	47%	2.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	17,041	8,192	₦5.22bn	₦5.18bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	11,728	2,209	₦1.86bn	₦1.84bn	25%	4.6 yr
Residential	10,658	6,144	₦25.4bn	₦25.2bn	51%	2.1 yr
Residential Small	7,941	4,640	₦3.17bn	₦2.27bn	47%	2.1 yr
Shed	7,828	3,515	₦433m	₦433m	21%	5.1 yr
Apartment	2,219	1,040	₦642m	₦642m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,664	1,134	₦511m	₦511m	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial	1,597	1,107	₦18.5bn	₦17.8bn	43%	2.4 yr
Duplex	803	417	₦262m	₦262m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	556	460	₦2.63bn	₦2.62bn	43%	2.6 yr
Institutional	367	231	₦18.5bn	₦18.2bn	37%	2.9 yr
Unknown	192	75	₦632m	₦632m	29%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	63,341	29,568	₦83.9bn	₦81.1bn
Farmland	131	12	₦12.6m	₦12.6m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	60,640	27,613	₦41.7bn	₦40.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	2,208	1,585	₦21.4bn	₦20.7bn	43%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	624	382	₦20.8bn	₦20.3bn	43%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	24,799	10,305	₦16.8bn	₦16.4bn
3.0	19,675	11,103	₦42.8bn	₦41.8bn
2.0	7,456	2,951	₦1.54bn	₦1.17bn
0.0	7,216	3,538	₦448m	₦448m
1.0	2,628	387	₦84.5m	₦84.2m
5.0	1,187	886	₦5.54bn	₦5.53bn
6.0	511	410	₦16.8bn	₦15.7bn