Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Ijebu North East, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Ijebu North East has 17,624 buildings with a viable rooftop and 405 MWp of roof capacity. 70% run a generator, and together they spend ₦34.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

17,624

Usable roof area

1.8 km²

405 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦34.8bn/yr

30.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.1 yr

Median IRR 51% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ijebu North East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦34.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦33.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.74tn

NPV₦269bn

Median IRR51%

Median payback2.1 yr

Unlocked energy17.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity80.3 MWp

Capex₦83.2bn

Year-one energy value₦69.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.28tn

NPV₦548bn

Median IRR89%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ijebu North East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 80.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦83.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦69.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦548bn
Median IRR: 89%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ijebu North East pays back quickly

Of the 17,531 buildings in Ijebu North East with a modelled payback, 88.7% pay back inside five years and 66.3% inside three.

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How much of Ijebu North East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ijebu North East consume 43.7 GWh/yr but want 61 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ijebu North East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ijebu North East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 17,531 buildings with a modelled result out of 17,624 in Ijebu North East. 16,258 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,628 (66%)

Under 5 years15,548 (89%)

Under 7 years16,252 (93%)

Under 10 years16,613 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%16,523 (94%)

Above 15%16,258 (92%)

Above 20%15,756 (89%)

Above 25%12,557 (71%)

CO₂ avoided

58.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

19.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

154k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ijebu North East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ijebu North East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	6,688	4,532	₦16.6bn	₦16.1bn	69%	1.6 yr
C	6,068	4,759	₦8.16bn	₦8.12bn	47%	2.4 yr
D	4,867	3,002	₦9.98bn	₦9.72bn	53%	1.9 yr
B	1	0	₦921	₦921	-1%	—

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	17,006	11,689	₦31.2bn	₦30.5bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	209	200	₦1.24bn	₦1.23bn	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	171	170	₦1.58bn	₦1.53bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	161	158	₦445m	₦445m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	48	47	₦245m	₦243m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	24	24	₦10.4m	₦10.4m	57%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	5	5	₦25.3m	₦25.3m	57%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	6,815	4,886	₦14.5bn	₦13.9bn	57%	1.9 yr
Under 30m2	3,655	2,455	₦340m	₦336m	47%	2.1 yr
50 100m2	3,351	2,227	₦1.83bn	₦1.83bn	49%	2.1 yr
30 50m2	2,095	1,361	₦405m	₦405m	47%	2.1 yr
250 1000m2	1,657	1,325	₦15.3bn	₦15.1bn	59%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	51	39	₦2.38bn	₦2.38bn	53%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	9,009	5,563	₦19.3bn	₦18.8bn	55%	1.9 yr
Urban Centre	4,705	4,207	₦7.96bn	₦7.92bn	47%	2.4 yr
Unclassified	1,992	934	₦3.74bn	₦3.49bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	1,918	1,589	₦3.76bn	₦3.75bn	69%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	5,201	3,559	₦24.2bn	₦23.4bn	61%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	4,935	3,194	₦2.95bn	₦2.95bn	57%	1.9 yr
Shed	3,636	2,216	₦244m	₦244m	47%	2.1 yr
Residential Informal	2,427	2,228	₦3.58bn	₦3.58bn	45%	2.4 yr
Residential Formal	668	401	₦227m	₦227m	29%	3.6 yr
Institutional	183	178	₦1.63bn	₦1.62bn	55%	1.9 yr
Apartment	88	56	₦30.4m	₦30.4m	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	59	59	₦477m	₦477m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	57	57	₦78.7m	₦78.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	52	51	₦158m	₦158m	77%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	48	47	₦43m	₦43m	63%	1.6 yr
School	47	47	₦139m	₦139m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	17,624	12,293	₦34.8bn	₦33.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	17,329	12,000	₦32.3bn	₦31.5bn	51%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	218	216	₦1.82bn	₦1.77bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	77	77	₦661m	₦661m	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	8,545	6,006	₦28bn	₦27.3bn
0.0	3,657	2,232	₦251m	₦251m
2.0	2,760	1,915	₦2.3bn	₦2.12bn
4.0	2,137	1,781	₦4.05bn	₦4.05bn
1.0	522	356	₦159m	₦159m
5.0	3	3	₦37.3m	₦37.3m