Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Odogbolu, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Odogbolu has 74,611 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.88 GWp of roof capacity. 72% run a generator, and together they spend ₦93.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

74,611

Usable roof area

8.37 km²

1.88 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦93.2bn/yr

85.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.4 yr

Median IRR 43% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Odogbolu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦93.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦92bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.76tn

NPV₦704bn

Median IRR43%

Median payback2.4 yr

Unlocked energy56.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity251 MWp

Capex₦241bn

Year-one energy value₦163bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.6tn

NPV₦1.23tn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Odogbolu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 251 MWp
Capital cost: ₦241bn
Year 1 savings: ₦163bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.23tn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Odogbolu pays back quickly

Of the 74,148 buildings in Odogbolu with a modelled payback, 84.7% pay back inside five years and 59.5% inside three.

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How much of Odogbolu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Odogbolu consume 158 GWh/yr but want 214 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Odogbolu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Odogbolu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 74,148 buildings with a modelled result out of 74,611 in Odogbolu. 68,756 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years44,101 (59%)

Under 5 years62,817 (85%)

Under 7 years68,699 (93%)

Under 10 years71,559 (97%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%71,262 (96%)

Above 15%68,756 (92%)

Above 20%64,343 (86%)

Above 25%53,333 (71%)

CO₂ avoided

160 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

44.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

56.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

233k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Odogbolu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Odogbolu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	34,783	28,091	₦53.7bn	₦53.1bn	51%	2.1 yr
B	19,413	12,876	₦16.5bn	₦16.2bn	31%	3.4 yr
D	16,039	9,954	₦15.7bn	₦15.4bn	47%	2.1 yr
E	4,067	2,584	₦6.53bn	₦6.49bn	67%	1.6 yr
A	309	23	₦822m	₦822m	19%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	70,305	50,503	₦59.3bn	₦58.6bn	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	2,171	1,504	₦12.5bn	₦12.2bn	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,176	791	₦314m	₦314m	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	568	446	₦20.4bn	₦20bn	53%	2.1 yr
Industrial	187	135	₦545m	₦535m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	153	116	₦171m	₦171m	45%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	34	22	₦59.1m	₦59.1m	39%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	10	8	₦30m	₦30m	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	5	2	₦5.7m	₦5.7m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	2	1	₦9.64m	₦9.64m	33%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	24,645	18,015	₦26.1bn	₦25.9bn	47%	2.4 yr
Under 30m2	16,115	11,287	₦1.18bn	₦1.14bn	37%	2.9 yr
50 100m2	14,066	9,516	₦3.95bn	₦3.81bn	43%	2.4 yr
250 1000m2	9,998	7,871	₦37.9bn	₦37.5bn	47%	2.4 yr
30 50m2	9,448	6,555	₦1.45bn	₦1.2bn	43%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	339	284	₦22.7bn	₦22.4bn	53%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	29,938	22,110	₦24.6bn	₦24.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
Urban	18,471	13,418	₦31.3bn	₦31.1bn	55%	1.9 yr
Dense Urban	16,602	13,092	₦21.7bn	₦21.4bn	47%	2.4 yr
Unclassified	9,347	4,803	₦15.5bn	₦15bn	33%	2.9 yr
Rural	253	105	₦59.5m	₦59.5m	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	16,567	12,612	₦44bn	₦43.9bn	59%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	15,885	11,288	₦4.9bn	₦4.76bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Formal	12,569	8,676	₦4bn	₦4bn	29%	3.6 yr
Shed	12,204	8,462	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	49%	2.1 yr
Residential Informal	10,851	7,962	₦4.68bn	₦4.37bn	31%	3.4 yr
Apartment	1,650	1,077	₦450m	₦450m	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,174	789	₦308m	₦308m	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	942	647	₦4.37bn	₦4.34bn	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial	647	454	₦5.8bn	₦5.6bn	47%	2.4 yr
Duplex	540	399	₦172m	₦172m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	475	369	₦19.3bn	₦19.1bn	43%	2.4 yr
Unknown	196	115	₦507m	₦507m	35%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	74,197	53,436	₦92.3bn	₦91bn
Industrial	215	23	₦709m	₦709m
Farmland	199	69	₦282m	₦282m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	72,231	51,823	₦62bn	₦61.4bn	43%	2.4 yr
SME High	1,645	1,137	₦10.4bn	₦10.1bn	45%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	735	568	₦20.8bn	₦20.4bn	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	31,023	23,363	₦65.9bn	₦65.1bn
4.0	19,439	13,771	₦18.9bn	₦18.7bn
0.0	12,225	8,474	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn
2.0	9,246	6,187	₦2.3bn	₦2.2bn
1.0	2,055	1,356	₦362m	₦313m
5.0	534	308	₦3.02bn	₦2.85bn
6.0	89	69	₦1.77bn	₦1.75bn