Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Ijebu North, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Ijebu North has 78,382 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.85 GWp of roof capacity. 59% run a generator, and together they spend ₦131bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

78,382

Usable roof area

8.24 km²

1.85 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦131bn/yr

112 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.9 yr

Median IRR 35% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ijebu North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦131bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦126bn

Lifetime cash saved₦6.46tn

NPV₦956bn

Median IRR35%

Median payback2.9 yr

Unlocked energy59.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity317 MWp

Capex₦325bn

Year-one energy value₦238bn

Lifetime energy value₦11.2tn

NPV₦1.83tn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ijebu North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 317 MWp
Capital cost: ₦325bn
Year 1 savings: ₦238bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.83tn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ijebu North pays back quickly

Of the 78,057 buildings in Ijebu North with a modelled payback, 86.0% pay back inside five years and 50.2% inside three.

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How much of Ijebu North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ijebu North consume 195 GWh/yr but want 255 GWh/yr. The 23% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ijebu North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ijebu North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 78,057 buildings with a modelled result out of 78,382 in Ijebu North. 71,459 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years39,187 (50%)

Under 5 years67,131 (86%)

Under 7 years71,420 (91%)

Under 10 years73,288 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%73,031 (93%)

Above 15%71,459 (91%)

Above 20%68,605 (88%)

Above 25%50,732 (65%)

CO₂ avoided

217 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

66.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

59.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

568k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ijebu North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ijebu North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	39,282	23,036	₦47.3bn	₦46.5bn	33%	3.1 yr
D	27,239	19,912	₦60.4bn	₦59.1bn	49%	2.1 yr
E	10,808	2,674	₦20.9bn	₦17.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	1,053	536	₦2.76bn	₦2.76bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	75,043	44,218	₦111bn	₦107bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	1,638	851	₦6.38bn	₦6.25bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	691	540	₦11.2bn	₦10.2bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	525	230	₦94.6m	₦94.6m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	338	226	₦1.09bn	₦1.02bn	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	90	57	₦73m	₦73m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	30	19	₦89.5m	₦89.5m	43%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	20	15	₦1.16bn	₦828m	47%	2.4 yr
Mall Retail	7	2	₦6.95m	₦6.22m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	28,531	17,511	₦45.3bn	₦44.1bn	37%	2.9 yr
50 100m2	15,462	7,703	₦5.85bn	₦5.74bn	27%	3.9 yr
Under 30m2	15,374	8,306	₦1.27bn	₦1.25bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	9,606	5,346	₦1.63bn	₦1.62bn	33%	3.1 yr
250 1000m2	9,246	7,169	₦64.7bn	₦62bn	49%	2.1 yr
Over 1000m2	163	123	₦12.5bn	₦11.2bn	57%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	55,405	36,360	₦84.7bn	₦83.6bn	39%	2.9 yr
Unclassified	14,153	3,785	₦25.5bn	₦21.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	6,989	4,786	₦17.3bn	₦17.3bn	55%	1.9 yr
Rural	1,835	1,227	₦3.77bn	₦3.46bn	67%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	31,255	18,102	₦28.3bn	₦28.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	11,751	8,142	₦63bn	₦59.3bn	59%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	11,628	5,919	₦5.85bn	₦5.68bn	43%	2.4 yr
Shed	8,936	3,716	₦481m	₦481m	15%	6.9 yr
Apartment	5,771	3,705	₦5.01bn	₦5.01bn	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Informal	4,256	3,801	₦7.51bn	₦7.51bn	45%	2.4 yr
Duplex	1,371	799	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	827	243	₦2.09bn	₦2.09bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	566	424	₦9.62bn	₦8.81bn	43%	2.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	524	229	₦83.8m	₦83.8m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	252	202	₦2.02bn	₦1.89bn	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	225	182	₦772m	₦772m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	78,382	46,158	₦131bn	₦126bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	76,225	44,919	₦115bn	₦110bn	35%	3.1 yr
SME High	1,133	478	₦4.55bn	₦4.4bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	1,024	761	₦12.2bn	₦11.2bn	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	39,528	24,083	₦48bn	₦47.6bn
3.0	20,405	14,210	₦76.9bn	₦72.4bn
0.0	8,994	3,735	₦495m	₦495m
2.0	7,123	3,326	₦3.5bn	₦3.27bn
1.0	1,991	715	₦355m	₦354m
5.0	331	85	₦1.92bn	₦1.73bn
6.0	10	4	₦144m	₦140m