Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Ogun Waterside, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Ogun Waterside has 23,475 buildings with a viable rooftop and 464 MWp of roof capacity. 58% run a generator, and together they spend ₦36.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

23,475

Usable roof area

2.07 km²

464 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦36.9bn/yr

34.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.6 yr

Median IRR 65% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ogun Waterside

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦36.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦35.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.79tn

NPV₦286bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Unlocked energy16.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity79.1 MWp

Capex₦82.1bn

Year-one energy value₦74.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.51tn

NPV₦593bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ogun Waterside's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 79.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦82.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦74.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦593bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ogun Waterside pays back quickly

Of the 23,230 buildings in Ogun Waterside with a modelled payback, 74.6% pay back inside five years and 58.2% inside three.

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How much of Ogun Waterside's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ogun Waterside consume 42.2 GWh/yr but want 58.7 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ogun Waterside

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ogun Waterside actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 23,230 buildings with a modelled result out of 23,475 in Ogun Waterside. 18,408 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,513 (58%)

Under 5 years17,322 (75%)

Under 7 years18,391 (79%)

Under 10 years19,343 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%19,124 (81%)

Above 15%18,408 (78%)

Above 20%17,662 (75%)

Above 25%14,088 (60%)

CO₂ avoided

58.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

20.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

167k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ogun Waterside.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ogun Waterside

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	18,536	11,420	₦31.1bn	₦29.8bn	67%	1.6 yr
D	4,939	2,135	₦5.76bn	₦5.73bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	22,987	13,103	₦31.4bn	₦30.3bn	65%	1.6 yr
Anchor	226	217	₦4.37bn	₦4.15bn	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	160	150	₦870m	₦870m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	48	39	₦55.1m	₦54.9m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	45	38	₦151m	₦151m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	9	8	₦13.5m	₦13.5m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	6,851	4,650	₦14bn	₦13.3bn	71%	1.6 yr
Under 30m2	5,836	3,065	₦376m	₦375m	49%	1.9 yr
50 100m2	4,806	2,460	₦2.03bn	₦2.02bn	51%	2.1 yr
30 50m2	3,897	1,805	₦450m	₦450m	25%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,042	1,542	₦15.3bn	₦14.9bn	71%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	43	33	₦4.69bn	₦4.47bn	71%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	7,398	2,076	₦6.74bn	₦6.52bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	6,636	5,068	₦14.1bn	₦14.1bn	69%	1.6 yr
Dense Urban	5,678	3,325	₦9.65bn	₦8.71bn	57%	1.9 yr
Rural	3,763	3,086	₦6.36bn	₦6.24bn	69%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	7,287	4,355	₦3.06bn	₦3.05bn	69%	1.6 yr
Shed	6,912	3,328	₦410m	₦410m	11%	7.1 yr
Residential	6,910	4,908	₦27.6bn	₦26.5bn	71%	1.4 yr
Residential Formal	1,158	154	₦70.3m	₦70.3m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Informal	598	333	₦277m	₦277m	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	174	163	₦3.55bn	₦3.55bn	57%	1.9 yr
Apartment	90	16	₦9.29m	₦9.29m	25%	4.6 yr
Educational Facility	74	68	₦304m	₦304m	81%	1.4 yr
School	52	51	₦176m	₦176m	81%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	41	34	₦145m	₦145m	67%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	37	36	₦451m	₦416m	53%	2.1 yr
Clinic	31	30	₦549m	₦362m	53%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	23,475	13,555	₦36.9bn	₦35.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	23,196	13,293	₦32.3bn	₦31.2bn	65%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	266	250	₦4.25bn	₦4.19bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	13	12	₦286m	₦118m	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	11,617	8,085	₦34.8bn	₦33.5bn
0.0	6,925	3,331	₦411m	₦411m
2.0	2,947	1,606	₦1.3bn	₦1.3bn
4.0	1,316	256	₦218m	₦218m
1.0	669	276	₦98.4m	₦98m
5.0	1	1	₦792k	₦792k