Ogun State

Rooftop solar in Imeko Afon, Ogun: what the roofs are worth

Imeko Afon has 47,209 buildings with a viable rooftop and 819 MWp of roof capacity. 17% run a generator, and together they spend ₦18.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

47,209

Usable roof area

3.66 km²

819 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦18.2bn/yr

15.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Imeko Afon

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦18.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦17.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦929bn

NPV₦140bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy16.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity87.3 MWp

Capex₦89.6bn

Year-one energy value₦76.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.61tn

NPV₦606bn

Median IRR85%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Imeko Afon's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 87.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦89.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦76.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦606bn
Median IRR: 85%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Imeko Afon pays back quickly

Of the 45,858 buildings in Imeko Afon with a modelled payback, 50.5% pay back inside five years and 17.2% inside three.

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How much of Imeko Afon's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Imeko Afon consume 29.6 GWh/yr but want 45.9 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Imeko Afon

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Imeko Afon actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 45,858 buildings with a modelled result out of 47,209 in Imeko Afon. 29,148 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,869 (17%)

Under 5 years23,143 (50%)

Under 7 years29,090 (63%)

Under 10 years33,267 (73%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%32,553 (69%)

Above 15%29,148 (62%)

Above 20%24,626 (52%)

Above 25%18,128 (38%)

CO₂ avoided

33.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.77 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

253k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Imeko Afon.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Imeko Afon

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	20,544	4,060	₦10.7bn	₦10.3bn	17%	5.9 yr
D	19,216	3,916	₦5.99bn	₦5.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	7,449	182	₦1.52bn	₦1.5bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	45,665	7,244	₦13.9bn	₦13.4bn	21%	5.1 yr
Commercial General	759	402	₦1.83bn	₦1.83bn	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	257	149	₦55.7m	₦55.7m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	255	196	₦2.21bn	₦1.99bn	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	159	92	₦197m	₦197m	51%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	67	37	₦59.5m	₦59.5m	43%	2.6 yr
Worship	47	38	₦14m	₦14m	55%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	15,417	3,475	₦8.7bn	₦8.54bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	11,875	1,382	₦197m	₦193m	5%	16.1 yr
50 100m2	10,258	1,574	₦1.48bn	₦1.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	7,466	1,027	₦340m	₦327m	9%	9.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,147	678	₦6.09bn	₦5.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	46	22	₦1.43bn	₦1.22bn	27%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	21,592	2,549	₦6.63bn	₦6.31bn	13%	7.1 yr
Dense Urban	14,880	2,406	₦4.78bn	₦4.77bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	9,993	2,814	₦5.07bn	₦4.76bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	744	389	₦1.76bn	₦1.75bn	69%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	12,697	1,304	₦157m	₦157m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	12,334	2,277	₦1.83bn	₦1.72bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	10,535	2,801	₦11.2bn	₦10.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	8,811	707	₦513m	₦513m	19%	5.4 yr
Apartment	781	109	₦96.5m	₦96.5m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	405	36	₦34.1m	₦34.1m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	324	116	₦616m	₦616m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	286	199	₦1.84bn	₦1.63bn	49%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	257	149	₦55.7m	₦55.7m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial	179	115	₦783m	₦783m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	147	84	₦180m	₦180m	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	88	64	₦231m	₦231m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	47,209	8,158	₦18.2bn	₦17.6bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	46,225	7,602	₦14.4bn	₦13.9bn	21%	5.1 yr
SME High	570	268	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	414	288	₦2.41bn	₦2.19bn	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	15,770	4,359	₦14.3bn	₦13.8bn
0.0	12,655	1,303	₦156m	₦156m
4.0	10,229	960	₦1.73bn	₦1.72bn
2.0	6,386	1,148	₦1.43bn	₦1.35bn
1.0	1,922	381	₦237m	₦235m
5.0	203	4	₦215m	₦215m
6.0	44	3	₦154m	₦154m