Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Bauchi State: buildings, spend and payback

3,071,786 buildings in Bauchi State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦368bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 6% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

3,071,786

Usable roof area

83.6 km²

18.4 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦368bn/yr

312 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

14.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bauchi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦368bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦359bn

Lifetime cash saved₦19.7tn

NPV₦2.89tn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.4 yr

Unlocked energy396 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity2.03 GWp

Capex₦2.18tn

Year-one energy value₦2.21tn

Lifetime energy value₦104tn

NPV₦17.9tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Bauchi State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 2.03 GWp
Capital cost: ₦2.18tn
Year 1 savings: ₦2.21tn/yr
NPV: ₦17.9tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bauchi State pays back quickly

Of the 3,033,860 buildings in Bauchi State with a modelled payback, 25.9% pay back inside five years and 6.7% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

25.9%

Payback under 3 years

6.7%

IRR above 20%

27.7%

Under 3 years · 7%3 – 5 years · 19%5 – 7 years · 8%7 – 10 years · 9%Over 10 years · 57%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Bauchi State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Bauchi State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bauchi State consume 771 GWh/yr but want 1.17 TWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 66%Suppressed · 34%

Energy wanted

1.17 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

771 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

396 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Bauchi State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 3,033,860 buildings with a modelled result out of 3,071,786 in Bauchi State. 1,027,012 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years203,741 (7%)

Under 5 years785,945 (26%)

Under 7 years1,029,308 (34%)

Under 10 years1,296,828 (43%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%1,206,741 (39%)

Above 15%1,027,012 (33%)

Above 20%852,183 (28%)

Above 25%678,218 (22%)

Electricity billing bands in Bauchi State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bauchi State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	908,190	35,496	₦79.6bn	₦76.8bn	5%	15.9 yr
D	781,310	24,011	₦48.9bn	₦47.3bn	5%	16.4 yr
E	666,648	24,566	₦44.5bn	₦43.5bn	5%	16.4 yr
B	368,686	43,654	₦90bn	₦87.5bn	23%	4.9 yr
A	346,952	67,066	₦105bn	₦104bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	3,015,398	158,974	₦214bn	₦208bn	7%	14.6 yr
Commercial Retail	21,173	11,810	₦3.55bn	₦3.55bn	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	17,311	11,165	₦61.1bn	₦60.8bn	47%	2.4 yr
Anchor	9,392	6,870	₦85.4bn	₦82.8bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	7,934	5,693	₦1.96bn	₦1.96bn	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	342	176	₦332m	₦332m	43%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	134	70	₦934m	₦914m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	44	15	₦110m	₦110m	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	36	11	₦301m	₦301m	39%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	17	8	₦33.6m	₦33.6m	41%	2.6 yr
Automotive	5	1	₦2.03m	₦2.03m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	1,950,163	67,950	₦12bn	₦11.7bn	5%	17.1 yr
30 50m2	560,886	40,241	₦20.3bn	₦19.7bn	13%	8.4 yr
50 100m2	375,372	41,460	₦48.8bn	₦48bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	153,274	33,592	₦92.6bn	₦89.2bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	30,700	10,727	₦112bn	₦110bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	1,391	823	₦82.3bn	₦80.5bn	53%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	1,347,126	28,816	₦87.4bn	₦85bn	5%	17.6 yr
Urban	686,106	51,396	₦101bn	₦97.7bn	9%	13.9 yr
Rural	431,411	23,935	₦32.9bn	₦32.2bn	9%	13.4 yr
Urban Centre	354,615	62,487	₦103bn	₦102bn	25%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	252,528	28,159	₦42.9bn	₦41.6bn	21%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	2,070,651	57,123	₦8.86bn	₦8.86bn	5%	16.9 yr
Residential Small	398,722	43,958	₦55.5bn	₦54.4bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	205,061	20,733	₦14.9bn	₦14.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	201,799	28,413	₦130bn	₦125bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	133,485	7,703	₦4.83bn	₦4.81bn	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	21,171	11,811	₦3.45bn	₦3.45bn	43%	2.4 yr
Institutional	6,937	5,096	₦56.6bn	₦56.3bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	6,284	3,980	₦30.9bn	₦30.6bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	5,500	3,334	₦20.2bn	₦20.1bn	43%	2.4 yr
Apartment	3,910	747	₦349m	₦349m	31%	3.6 yr
Educational Facility	2,981	2,207	₦3.78bn	₦3.78bn	87%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	2,686	1,918	₦409m	₦409m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	3,071,415	194,774	₦368bn	₦358bn
Retail	218	0	₦1.35m	₦1.35m
Farmland	141	17	₦122m	₦122m
Farmyard	5	0	₦270k	₦270k
Commercial	3	0	₦17.4m	₦17.4m
Orchard	2	2	₦2.75m	₦2.75m
Vineyard	2	0	₦160k	₦160k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	3,050,292	180,431	₦229bn	₦223bn	7%	14.4 yr
SME High	11,949	7,385	₦52.8bn	₦52.5bn	45%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	9,545	6,977	₦85.5bn	₦83bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	2,059,779	57,375	₦8.75bn	₦8.75bn
2.0	356,735	41,062	₦53.6bn	₦51.6bn
3.0	270,361	48,749	₦202bn	₦197bn
4.0	198,306	21,214	₦41.6bn	₦40.9bn
1.0	179,664	22,544	₦17.5bn	₦16.6bn
5.0	5,549	2,878	₦18.5bn	₦18.4bn
6.0	1,392	971	₦25.8bn	₦25.6bn