Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Bogoro, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Bogoro has 46,422 buildings with a viable rooftop and 364 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.73bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

46,422

Usable roof area

1.65 km²

364 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.73bn/yr

7.22 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.4 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bogoro

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.73bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.56bn

Lifetime cash saved₦405bn

NPV₦62.9bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback9.4 yr

Unlocked energy8.05 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity58.2 MWp

Capex₦62.7bn

Year-one energy value₦72.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.45tn

NPV₦601bn

Median IRR117%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Bogoro's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 58.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦62.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦72.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦601bn
Median IRR: 117%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bogoro pays back quickly

Of the 46,027 buildings in Bogoro with a modelled payback, 38.2% pay back inside five years and 7.7% inside three.

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How much of Bogoro's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bogoro consume 13.6 GWh/yr but want 21.7 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bogoro

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bogoro actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 46,027 buildings with a modelled result out of 46,422 in Bogoro. 19,425 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,526 (8%)

Under 5 years17,590 (38%)

Under 7 years19,448 (42%)

Under 10 years25,896 (56%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%23,288 (50%)

Above 15%19,425 (42%)

Above 20%18,104 (39%)

Above 25%16,507 (36%)

CO₂ avoided

14.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.46 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.05 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

230k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bogoro.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bogoro

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	17,377	1,382	₦2.53bn	₦2.44bn	11%	9.1 yr
D	16,750	1,501	₦3.85bn	₦3.78bn	11%	9.4 yr
E	12,295	617	₦1.35bn	₦1.34bn	9%	9.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	45,586	2,776	₦5.09bn	₦4.91bn	9%	9.4 yr
Anchor	375	327	₦2.13bn	₦2.13bn	91%	1.1 yr
Worship	236	207	₦96.6m	₦96.6m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	209	182	₦392m	₦392m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	9	8	₦18.7m	₦18.7m	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	7	0	₦71.9k	₦71.9k	25%	4.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	20,373	1,093	₦195m	₦195m	7%	15.6 yr
30 50m2	11,647	791	₦429m	₦429m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	10,579	885	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	3,239	564	₦2.14bn	₦2.05bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	567	161	₦1.98bn	₦1.89bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	17	6	₦1.55bn	₦1.55bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	25,941	1,381	₦4.22bn	₦4.05bn	11%	9.1 yr
Unclassified	13,126	496	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn	9%	13.6 yr
Rural	5,237	1,476	₦1.73bn	₦1.73bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	2,118	147	₦506m	₦506m	11%	8.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	26,182	1,127	₦176m	₦176m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Small	14,969	1,194	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	4,435	455	₦3.12bn	₦2.94bn	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	270	240	₦534m	₦534m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	150	136	₦251m	₦251m	95%	1.1 yr
School	131	116	₦151m	₦151m	93%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	80	70	₦26.2m	₦26.2m	69%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	77	68	₦12.3m	₦12.3m	69%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	37	30	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	61%	1.6 yr
Hospital	28	22	₦204m	₦204m	57%	1.9 yr
Clinic	26	21	₦32.3m	₦32.3m	57%	1.9 yr
Market	11	10	₦5.61m	₦5.61m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	46,422	3,500	₦7.73bn	₦7.56bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	46,034	3,165	₦5.58bn	₦5.4bn	9%	9.4 yr
Enterprise	384	335	₦2.15bn	₦2.15bn	89%	1.1 yr
SME High	4	0	₦459k	₦459k	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	26,200	1,142	₦177m	₦177m
2.0	9,273	905	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn
3.0	7,418	1,149	₦5.93bn	₦5.75bn
1.0	3,531	304	₦302m	₦302m