Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Ganjuwa, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Ganjuwa has 286,658 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.08 GWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦14.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

286,658

Usable roof area

4.95 km²

1.08 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦14.2bn/yr

13 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.4 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ganjuwa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦14.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦778bn

NPV₦107bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.4 yr

Unlocked energy14.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity98.1 MWp

Capex₦110bn

Year-one energy value₦114bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.41tn

NPV₦932bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ganjuwa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 98.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦110bn
Year 1 savings: ₦114bn/yr
NPV: ₦932bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ganjuwa pays back quickly

Of the 278,873 buildings in Ganjuwa with a modelled payback, 11.5% pay back inside five years and 2.9% inside three.

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How much of Ganjuwa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ganjuwa consume 27.9 GWh/yr but want 42.2 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ganjuwa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ganjuwa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 278,873 buildings with a modelled result out of 286,658 in Ganjuwa. 47,632 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,151 (3%)

Under 5 years32,139 (12%)

Under 7 years47,776 (17%)

Under 10 years65,259 (23%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%58,983 (21%)

Above 15%47,632 (17%)

Above 20%36,010 (13%)

Above 25%27,678 (10%)

CO₂ avoided

27.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.98 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

380k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ganjuwa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ganjuwa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	94,489	1,829	₦2.62bn	₦2.62bn	5%	17.6 yr
D	89,294	964	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	5%	18.1 yr
E	75,750	2,518	₦2.4bn	₦2.36bn	5%	17.9 yr
B	25,709	2,233	₦4.77bn	₦4.75bn	19%	5.9 yr
A	1,416	474	₦2.84bn	₦2.84bn	29%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	282,829	4,888	₦8.25bn	₦8.22bn	5%	17.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,996	1,807	₦192m	₦192m	65%	1.6 yr
Anchor	648	450	₦4.98bn	₦4.97bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	625	462	₦85.2m	₦85.2m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	548	408	₦687m	₦687m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	12	3	₦3.05m	₦3.05m	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	223,697	3,635	₦679m	₦678m	3%	18.4 yr
30 50m2	39,109	1,796	₦690m	₦690m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	18,373	1,332	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	4,530	853	₦2.71bn	₦2.68bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	875	362	₦3.7bn	₦3.68bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	74	40	₦4.85bn	₦4.85bn	57%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	209,570	2,654	₦7.46bn	₦7.45bn	3%	18.4 yr
Rural	45,445	3,081	₦4.37bn	₦4.37bn	7%	13.9 yr
Dense Urban	23,430	1,793	₦810m	₦810m	19%	5.6 yr
Urban	8,213	490	₦1.56bn	₦1.53bn	9%	12.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	237,791	2,426	₦588m	₦588m	3%	18.1 yr
Residential Small	22,139	1,301	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	13,008	1,139	₦5.61bn	₦5.57bn	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Informal	6,367	22	₦85.3m	₦85.3m	19%	5.9 yr
Residential Formal	3,519	0	₦29.6m	₦29.6m	17%	6.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,996	1,807	₦192m	₦192m	65%	1.6 yr
Institutional	517	362	₦4.47bn	₦4.47bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	230	156	₦207m	₦207m	83%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	209	151	₦20.8m	₦20.8m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	206	154	₦17.3m	₦17.3m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial	202	186	₦169m	₦169m	67%	1.6 yr
School	159	102	₦84.2m	₦84.2m	77%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	286,657	8,018	₦14.2bn	₦14.2bn
Farmland	1	0	₦1.4k	₦1.4k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	285,770	7,355	₦9.03bn	₦9bn	5%	17.4 yr
Enterprise	658	453	₦4.99bn	₦4.97bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	230	210	₦185m	₦185m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	238,005	2,588	₦596m	₦596m
2.0	20,998	1,465	₦2.13bn	₦2.13bn
1.0	14,417	2,545	₦890m	₦890m
3.0	9,860	1,407	₦10.5bn	₦10.4bn
4.0	3,377	12	₦88.8m	₦88.8m
5.0	1	1	₦35.2m	₦35.2m