Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Tafawa-Balewa, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Tafawa-Balewa has 131,068 buildings with a viable rooftop and 813 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

131,068

Usable roof area

3.7 km²

813 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.9bn/yr

11 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Tafawa-Balewa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦716bn

NPV₦105bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.6 yr

Unlocked energy16.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity112 MWp

Capex₦122bn

Year-one energy value₦138bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.53tn

NPV₦1.14tn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Tafawa-Balewa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 112 MWp
Capital cost: ₦122bn
Year 1 savings: ₦138bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.14tn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Tafawa-Balewa pays back quickly

Of the 129,995 buildings in Tafawa-Balewa with a modelled payback, 28.7% pay back inside five years and 4.5% inside three.

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How much of Tafawa-Balewa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Tafawa-Balewa consume 25.5 GWh/yr but want 41.7 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Tafawa-Balewa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Tafawa-Balewa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 129,995 buildings with a modelled result out of 131,068 in Tafawa-Balewa. 43,269 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,903 (5%)

Under 5 years37,359 (29%)

Under 7 years43,339 (33%)

Under 10 years58,140 (45%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%52,293 (40%)

Above 15%43,269 (33%)

Above 20%39,018 (30%)

Above 25%33,864 (26%)

CO₂ avoided

26.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

467k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Tafawa-Balewa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Tafawa-Balewa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	48,089	1,864	₦4.63bn	₦4.58bn	9%	13.6 yr
D	40,266	2,314	₦3.3bn	₦3.3bn	7%	14.1 yr
E	34,474	1,247	₦3.73bn	₦3.7bn	7%	14.4 yr
B	8,239	388	₦1.22bn	₦1.22bn	25%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	129,318	4,435	₦8.83bn	₦8.74bn	7%	13.9 yr
Worship	677	535	₦228m	₦228m	65%	1.6 yr
Anchor	575	469	₦3.23bn	₦3.23bn	87%	1.1 yr
Commercial General	358	286	₦562m	₦562m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	121	73	₦8.95m	₦8.95m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	15	12	₦18.7m	₦18.7m	79%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	3	3	₦5.86m	₦5.86m	49%	2.1 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦23.3k	₦23.3k	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	72,142	1,850	₦443m	₦421m	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	30,402	1,661	₦1.04bn	₦1.02bn	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	21,011	1,301	₦2.62bn	₦2.62bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	6,678	757	₦3.2bn	₦3.17bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	808	223	₦2.81bn	₦2.81bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	27	21	₦2.76bn	₦2.76bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	61,232	1,734	₦4.08bn	₦3.99bn	5%	16.1 yr
Urban	29,944	581	₦3.24bn	₦3.24bn	9%	12.9 yr
Rural	28,819	2,812	₦3.51bn	₦3.51bn	11%	9.1 yr
Dense Urban	11,073	686	₦2.05bn	₦2.05bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	87,714	1,797	₦350m	₦350m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	28,336	1,698	₦3.29bn	₦3.29bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	7,862	940	₦5.02bn	₦4.94bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	3,051	0	₦67.8m	₦67.8m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Informal	2,212	0	₦92.2m	₦92.2m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	523	427	₦2.17bn	₦2.17bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	252	205	₦293m	₦293m	91%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	228	179	₦50.6m	₦50.6m	69%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	224	179	₦34.2m	₦34.2m	67%	1.6 yr
School	155	132	₦148m	₦148m	91%	1.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	121	73	₦8.95m	₦8.95m	63%	1.6 yr
Apartment	109	0	₦3.33m	₦3.33m	31%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	131,068	5,813	₦12.9bn	₦12.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	130,439	5,306	₦9.59bn	₦9.51bn	9%	13.6 yr
Enterprise	590	481	₦3.25bn	₦3.25bn	85%	1.1 yr
SME High	39	26	₦37.5m	₦37.5m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	87,797	1,860	₦355m	₦355m
2.0	17,505	1,806	₦3.21bn	₦3.18bn
3.0	11,293	1,225	₦7.78bn	₦7.78bn
1.0	11,141	903	₦1.07bn	₦1.03bn
4.0	3,332	19	₦462m	₦462m