Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Shira, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Shira has 127,922 buildings with a viable rooftop and 609 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦15.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

127,922

Usable roof area

2.79 km²

609 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦15.9bn/yr

14.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.6 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Shira

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦15.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦15.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦807bn

NPV₦123bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.6 yr

Unlocked energy14.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity87.1 MWp

Capex₦93.4bn

Year-one energy value₦101bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.72tn

NPV₦820bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Shira's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 87.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦93.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦101bn/yr
NPV: ₦820bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Shira pays back quickly

Of the 127,318 buildings in Shira with a modelled payback, 24.7% pay back inside five years and 8.6% inside three.

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How much of Shira's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Shira consume 29.2 GWh/yr but want 44.1 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Shira

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Shira actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 127,318 buildings with a modelled result out of 127,922 in Shira. 38,949 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,994 (9%)

Under 5 years31,505 (25%)

Under 7 years39,022 (31%)

Under 10 years50,632 (40%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%45,831 (36%)

Above 15%38,949 (30%)

Above 20%33,652 (26%)

Above 25%27,777 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

29.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.85 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

364k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Shira.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Shira

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	43,801	3,740	₦6.38bn	₦6.19bn	7%	15.4 yr
D	39,473	1,043	₦3.2bn	₦3bn	7%	15.4 yr
E	29,417	1,066	₦2.86bn	₦2.63bn	7%	15.6 yr
B	15,231	2,680	₦3.48bn	₦3.38bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	122,493	6,175	₦10.4bn	₦9.78bn	7%	14.9 yr
Commercial Retail	3,772	1,340	₦336m	₦336m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	1,115	565	₦1.76bn	₦1.76bn	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	381	324	₦3.33bn	₦3.28bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	142	116	₦34.7m	₦34.7m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	19	9	₦12.6m	₦12.6m	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	84,220	3,594	₦739m	₦609m	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	27,008	2,192	₦1.24bn	₦1.12bn	11%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	13,180	1,672	₦2.67bn	₦2.36bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	2,915	822	₦3.65bn	₦3.64bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	552	221	₦5.23bn	₦5.12bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	47	28	₦2.39bn	₦2.35bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	59,898	3,747	₦7.06bn	₦6.79bn	7%	14.6 yr
Unclassified	38,500	984	₦3.06bn	₦2.91bn	5%	17.4 yr
Rural	21,742	1,494	₦1.89bn	₦1.68bn	17%	6.4 yr
Dense Urban	7,782	2,304	₦3.92bn	₦3.82bn	31%	3.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	90,176	3,738	₦435m	₦435m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	16,814	1,598	₦2.97bn	₦2.64bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	8,644	787	₦6.93bn	₦6.6bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	5,501	52	₦77.3m	₦77.3m	23%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,772	1,340	₦336m	₦336m	37%	2.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,354	0	₦28.5m	₦28.5m	21%	4.9 yr
Commercial	662	272	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	284	155	₦225m	₦225m	39%	2.6 yr
Institutional	223	186	₦2.06bn	₦2.02bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	108	87	₦182m	₦182m	89%	1.1 yr
School	83	68	₦76.1m	₦76.1m	85%	1.1 yr
Hospital	70	63	₦880m	₦867m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	127,911	8,529	₦15.9bn	₦15.2bn
Farmland	11	0	₦584k	₦584k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	126,586	7,772	₦11.1bn	₦10.4bn	7%	14.6 yr
SME High	946	427	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	390	330	₦3.34bn	₦3.29bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	90,208	3,765	₦436m	₦436m
2.0	15,549	1,399	₦3.55bn	₦3.33bn
1.0	10,389	1,880	₦1.63bn	₦1.29bn
3.0	7,142	1,341	₦8.96bn	₦8.81bn
4.0	4,235	90	₦270m	₦270m
5.0	353	37	₦323m	₦323m
6.0	46	17	₦754m	₦752m