Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Itas/Gadau, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Itas/Gadau has 120,980 buildings with a viable rooftop and 478 MWp of roof capacity. 10% run a generator, and together they spend ₦16.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

120,980

Usable roof area

2.18 km²

478 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦16.5bn/yr

14.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Itas/Gadau

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦16.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦773bn

NPV₦118bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.1 yr

Unlocked energy11.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity68.3 MWp

Capex₦74.8bn

Year-one energy value₦83.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.88tn

NPV₦676bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Itas/Gadau's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 68.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦74.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦83.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦676bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Itas/Gadau pays back quickly

Of the 120,623 buildings in Itas/Gadau with a modelled payback, 21.5% pay back inside five years and 10.4% inside three.

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How much of Itas/Gadau's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Itas/Gadau consume 26.9 GWh/yr but want 38.6 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Itas/Gadau

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Itas/Gadau actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 120,623 buildings with a modelled result out of 120,980 in Itas/Gadau. 32,149 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,492 (10%)

Under 5 years25,890 (21%)

Under 7 years32,209 (27%)

Under 10 years43,396 (36%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%38,765 (32%)

Above 15%32,149 (27%)

Above 20%27,535 (23%)

Above 25%23,690 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

27.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.23 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

304k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Itas/Gadau.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Itas/Gadau

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	39,797	2,628	₦3.76bn	₦3.13bn	5%	15.9 yr
D	37,735	2,831	₦2.87bn	₦2.32bn	7%	15.6 yr
E	28,578	1,951	₦2.07bn	₦1.97bn	5%	16.1 yr
B	14,870	5,074	₦7.79bn	₦7.4bn	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	120,099	11,727	₦12.9bn	₦11.3bn	7%	15.1 yr
Worship	382	338	₦73.8m	₦73.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	341	291	₦3.23bn	₦3.19bn	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	149	124	₦274m	₦274m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	9	4	₦2.85m	₦2.85m	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	88,796	6,757	₦987m	₦902m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	21,725	2,998	₦1.58bn	₦1.57bn	11%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	8,242	1,717	₦2.78bn	₦2.72bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,812	786	₦4.58bn	₦3.47bn	33%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	366	201	₦3.49bn	₦3.09bn	65%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	39	25	₦3.07bn	₦3.07bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	40,733	6,852	₦8.06bn	₦7.17bn	9%	13.6 yr
Unclassified	37,987	506	₦2.74bn	₦2.24bn	5%	17.9 yr
Rural	32,959	1,822	₦1.41bn	₦1.22bn	7%	14.6 yr
Dense Urban	9,301	3,304	₦4.28bn	₦4.18bn	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	95,285	5,350	₦511m	₦511m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	12,381	2,620	₦3.76bn	₦3.69bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	9,867	3,757	₦8.6bn	₦7.04bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,564	0	₦36.8m	₦36.8m	21%	5.1 yr
Institutional	280	244	₦2.12bn	₦2.12bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	128	114	₦19.6m	₦19.6m	67%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	127	112	₦12m	₦12m	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	104	92	₦165m	₦165m	87%	1.1 yr
School	70	61	₦57.7m	₦57.7m	83%	1.1 yr
Hospital	62	52	₦473m	₦427m	55%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	52	41	₦245m	₦243m	57%	1.9 yr
Clinic	36	28	₦28.1m	₦28.1m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	120,978	12,484	₦16.5bn	₦14.8bn
Farmland	2	0	₦3.12k	₦3.12k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	120,637	12,192	₦13.3bn	₦11.6bn	7%	15.1 yr
Enterprise	343	292	₦3.24bn	₦3.19bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	95,357	5,411	₦514m	₦514m
2.0	12,067	3,552	₦4.44bn	₦3.86bn
1.0	7,180	2,029	₦1.38bn	₦1.33bn
3.0	4,263	1,491	₦10.1bn	₦9.07bn
4.0	2,113	1	₦49.8m	₦49.8m