Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Alkaleri, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Alkaleri has 208,105 buildings with a viable rooftop and 936 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦21.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

208,105

Usable roof area

4.28 km²

936 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦21.8bn/yr

17.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Alkaleri

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦21.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦21.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.15tn

NPV₦172bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.9 yr

Unlocked energy23.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity137 MWp

Capex₦150bn

Year-one energy value₦165bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.72tn

NPV₦1.34tn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Alkaleri's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 137 MWp
Capital cost: ₦150bn
Year 1 savings: ₦165bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.34tn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Alkaleri pays back quickly

Of the 207,571 buildings in Alkaleri with a modelled payback, 23.1% pay back inside five years and 7.8% inside three.

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How much of Alkaleri's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Alkaleri consume 38.1 GWh/yr but want 61.4 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Alkaleri

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Alkaleri actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 207,571 buildings with a modelled result out of 208,105 in Alkaleri. 60,726 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years16,121 (8%)

Under 5 years47,913 (23%)

Under 7 years60,847 (29%)

Under 10 years79,098 (38%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%72,072 (35%)

Above 15%60,726 (29%)

Above 20%51,590 (25%)

Above 25%42,512 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

43.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

623k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Alkaleri.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Alkaleri

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	69,677	4,761	₦7.32bn	₦7.11bn	7%	15.4 yr
D	59,038	3,716	₦5.16bn	₦4.97bn	7%	15.9 yr
E	53,768	3,621	₦4.45bn	₦4.37bn	7%	15.6 yr
B	22,884	3,645	₦3.69bn	₦3.69bn	23%	4.9 yr
A	2,738	299	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	205,808	14,246	₦18.4bn	₦17.9bn	7%	14.9 yr
Worship	1,025	907	₦267m	₦267m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	534	466	₦2.3bn	₦2.3bn	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	496	363	₦747m	₦747m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	207	30	₦14.2m	₦14.2m	35%	2.9 yr
Industrial	33	28	₦28.7m	₦28.7m	73%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦80.9m	₦80.9m	75%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	141,546	6,936	₦987m	₦987m	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	38,658	4,354	₦2.59bn	₦2.53bn	11%	8.4 yr
50 100m2	22,903	3,307	₦6.41bn	₦6.37bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	4,296	1,168	₦5.9bn	₦5.53bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	683	262	₦4.12bn	₦4.11bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	19	15	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	84,528	3,188	₦5.03bn	₦4.61bn	5%	17.6 yr
Urban	49,084	6,369	₦8.59bn	₦8.55bn	9%	13.1 yr
Rural	45,406	2,758	₦4.12bn	₦4.11bn	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	16,930	1,576	₦1.39bn	₦1.38bn	11%	9.1 yr
Urban Centre	12,157	2,151	₦2.67bn	₦2.66bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	156,798	8,044	₦851m	₦851m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	29,929	4,639	₦8.4bn	₦8.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	11,931	1,402	₦8.88bn	₦8.5bn	21%	5.4 yr
Residential Informal	5,006	161	₦185m	₦185m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,144	0	₦34.3m	₦34.3m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	612	535	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	344	303	₦54.2m	₦54.2m	67%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	336	300	₦37.6m	₦37.6m	65%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	207	30	₦14.2m	₦14.2m	35%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	204	179	₦277m	₦277m	89%	1.1 yr
School	136	116	₦102m	₦102m	87%	1.1 yr
Commercial	109	104	₦215m	₦215m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	208,040	16,042	₦21.8bn	₦21.3bn
Farmland	65	0	₦785k	₦785k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	207,348	15,446	₦19.1bn	₦18.6bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	561	491	₦2.33bn	₦2.33bn	75%	1.4 yr
SME High	196	105	₦342m	₦342m	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	156,932	8,217	₦863m	₦863m
2.0	24,305	3,403	₦7.17bn	₦7.02bn
1.0	12,641	1,751	₦2.41bn	₦2.34bn
3.0	11,531	2,608	₦10.9bn	₦10.6bn
4.0	2,684	61	₦372m	₦372m
5.0	11	2	₦93.1m	₦93.1m
6.0	1	0	₦8.92m	₦8.92m