Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Toro, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Toro has 280,329 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.82 GWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦19.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

280,329

Usable roof area

8.25 km²

1.82 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦19.7bn/yr

14.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Toro

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦19.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦19.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.12tn

NPV₦156bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy29.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity167 MWp

Capex₦181bn

Year-one energy value₦188bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.93tn

NPV₦1.54tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Toro's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 167 MWp
Capital cost: ₦181bn
Year 1 savings: ₦188bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.54tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Toro pays back quickly

Of the 274,288 buildings in Toro with a modelled payback, 25.2% pay back inside five years and 5.5% inside three.

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How much of Toro's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Toro consume 46.2 GWh/yr but want 75.3 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Toro

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Toro actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 274,288 buildings with a modelled result out of 280,329 in Toro. 96,977 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,139 (6%)

Under 5 years69,046 (25%)

Under 7 years97,290 (35%)

Under 10 years124,827 (46%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%116,226 (41%)

Above 15%96,977 (35%)

Above 20%75,740 (27%)

Above 25%60,156 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

44 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.36 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

29.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

698k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Toro.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Toro

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	80,715	3,074	₦4.81bn	₦4.78bn	7%	15.6 yr
D	67,715	1,339	₦2.2bn	₦2.2bn	5%	16.1 yr
E	59,783	1,975	₦1.97bn	₦1.97bn	7%	15.6 yr
B	54,081	6,012	₦8.66bn	₦8.54bn	21%	5.4 yr
A	18,035	1,644	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	276,109	11,675	₦13.3bn	₦13.2bn	7%	13.9 yr
Commercial General	1,727	992	₦3.84bn	₦3.83bn	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,180	549	₦193m	₦193m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	925	575	₦2.26bn	₦2.26bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	336	239	₦60.5m	₦60.5m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	49	14	₦27.5m	₦27.5m	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦152k	₦152k	31%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦125k	₦125k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	163,399	4,383	₦770m	₦766m	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	55,384	2,855	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	41,155	3,342	₦3.14bn	₦3.14bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	17,584	2,701	₦7.07bn	₦6.93bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,745	728	₦6.03bn	₦6.02bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	62	35	₦1.64bn	₦1.64bn	49%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	177,606	3,735	₦6.42bn	₦6.41bn	5%	16.4 yr
Dense Urban	39,365	5,354	₦6.56bn	₦6.55bn	21%	5.1 yr
Urban	33,178	2,344	₦5.15bn	₦5bn	17%	5.9 yr
Rural	30,180	2,611	₦1.56bn	₦1.56bn	15%	6.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	189,210	4,015	₦683m	₦683m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	47,342	4,092	₦3.22bn	₦3.22bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	18,752	3,123	₦8.83bn	₦8.69bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	14,288	445	₦442m	₦442m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Formal	6,218	0	₦125m	₦119m	19%	5.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,180	549	₦193m	₦193m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	1,106	564	₦2.96bn	₦2.95bn	41%	2.6 yr
Institutional	523	342	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	278	174	₦237m	₦237m	79%	1.4 yr
Apartment	239	0	₦6.32m	₦6.32m	31%	3.6 yr
School	220	138	₦106m	₦106m	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	151	151	₦243m	₦243m	43%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	280,327	14,044	₦19.7bn	₦19.5bn
Vineyard	2	0	₦160k	₦160k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	278,144	12,755	₦14.2bn	₦14.1bn	7%	13.9 yr
SME High	1,260	715	₦3.2bn	₦3.2bn	43%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	925	574	₦2.25bn	₦2.25bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	188,875	4,005	₦681m	₦681m
2.0	34,216	3,546	₦3.68bn	₦3.58bn
3.0	30,370	4,551	₦10.4bn	₦10.4bn
1.0	16,043	1,037	₦978m	₦978m
4.0	9,771	327	₦859m	₦857m
5.0	953	514	₦1.69bn	₦1.69bn
6.0	101	64	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn