Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Gamawa, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Gamawa has 155,532 buildings with a viable rooftop and 568 MWp of roof capacity. 1% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

155,532

Usable roof area

2.59 km²

568 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.6bn/yr

7.91 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.6 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gamawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.36bn

Lifetime cash saved₦451bn

NPV₦62.9bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.6 yr

Unlocked energy7.91 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity57.2 MWp

Capex₦64.1bn

Year-one energy value₦68.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.22tn

NPV₦558bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gamawa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 57.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦64.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦68.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦558bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gamawa pays back quickly

Of the 150,431 buildings in Gamawa with a modelled payback, 13.1% pay back inside five years and 1.2% inside three.

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How much of Gamawa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gamawa consume 17.3 GWh/yr but want 25.2 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gamawa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gamawa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 150,431 buildings with a modelled result out of 155,532 in Gamawa. 27,178 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,771 (1%)

Under 5 years19,760 (13%)

Under 7 years27,262 (18%)

Under 10 years35,561 (24%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%32,696 (21%)

Above 15%27,178 (17%)

Above 20%22,026 (14%)

Above 25%16,098 (10%)

CO₂ avoided

15.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.48 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.91 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

259k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gamawa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gamawa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	52,796	340	₦3.42bn	₦3.37bn	3%	18.4 yr
D	47,751	189	₦620m	₦620m	3%	18.1 yr
E	38,403	501	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	3%	18.4 yr
B	16,582	674	₦3.11bn	₦2.92bn	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	154,691	1,189	₦4.89bn	₦4.84bn	5%	17.6 yr
Anchor	369	236	₦3.2bn	₦3bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	194	127	₦471m	₦471m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	186	82	₦21.5m	₦21.5m	35%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	91	70	₦19.7m	₦19.7m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	1	0	₦159k	₦159k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	119,860	613	₦315m	₦314m	3%	18.9 yr
30 50m2	21,916	320	₦392m	₦392m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	11,038	368	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	2,320	276	₦1.98bn	₦1.91bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	367	106	₦2.95bn	₦2.77bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	31	21	₦1.95bn	₦1.95bn	69%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	106,129	335	₦2.38bn	₦2.33bn	3%	18.9 yr
Rural	29,492	601	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	7%	15.1 yr
Dense Urban	14,856	599	₦2.68bn	₦2.49bn	23%	4.9 yr
Urban	5,055	169	₦2.13bn	₦2.13bn	11%	8.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	127,651	368	₦261m	₦261m	3%	18.6 yr
Residential Small	13,169	347	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	6,666	474	₦3.4bn	₦3.35bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	5,083	0	₦83.4m	₦83.4m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,118	0	₦27.8m	₦27.8m	19%	5.4 yr
Institutional	214	118	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	94	62	₦123m	₦123m	81%	1.4 yr
Hospital	93	68	₦1.23bn	₦1.06bn	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	91	70	₦19.7m	₦19.7m	59%	1.9 yr
School	76	49	₦41.6m	₦41.6m	77%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	64	27	₦5.92m	₦5.92m	37%	2.9 yr
Place Of Worship	60	27	₦4.03m	₦4.03m	35%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	155,532	1,704	₦8.6bn	₦8.36bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	155,116	1,426	₦5.15bn	₦5.1bn	5%	17.6 yr
Enterprise	370	236	₦3.2bn	₦3.01bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	46	42	₦253m	₦253m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	127,679	391	₦263m	₦263m
2.0	10,912	565	₦1.42bn	₦1.37bn
1.0	6,551	320	₦434m	₦434m
3.0	6,378	413	₦6.19bn	₦5.99bn
4.0	4,012	15	₦295m	₦295m