Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Darazo, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Darazo has 163,762 buildings with a viable rooftop and 758 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

163,762

Usable roof area

3.48 km²

758 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.6bn/yr

8.42 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.6 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Darazo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦639bn

NPV₦89.8bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.6 yr

Unlocked energy17.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity104 MWp

Capex₦113bn

Year-one energy value₦124bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.77tn

NPV₦1.01tn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Darazo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 104 MWp
Capital cost: ₦113bn
Year 1 savings: ₦124bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.01tn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Darazo pays back quickly

Of the 163,393 buildings in Darazo with a modelled payback, 24.3% pay back inside five years and 5.7% inside three.

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How much of Darazo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Darazo consume 26.8 GWh/yr but want 44 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Darazo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Darazo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 163,393 buildings with a modelled result out of 163,762 in Darazo. 52,877 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,395 (6%)

Under 5 years39,637 (24%)

Under 7 years53,014 (32%)

Under 10 years65,781 (40%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%61,249 (37%)

Above 15%52,877 (32%)

Above 20%43,047 (26%)

Above 25%33,586 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

25.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.29 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

579k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Darazo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Darazo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	57,442	1,489	₦3.47bn	₦3.43bn	7%	15.1 yr
D	46,837	1,036	₦2.21bn	₦2.1bn	5%	15.9 yr
E	31,413	1,201	₦2.14bn	₦2.03bn	5%	16.4 yr
B	24,303	3,383	₦3.72bn	₦3.69bn	27%	3.9 yr
A	3,767	0	₦58.7m	₦58.7m	17%	6.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	158,839	5,886	₦8.42bn	₦8.15bn	7%	14.9 yr
Commercial Retail	3,114	290	₦187m	₦187m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	758	241	₦841m	₦841m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	615	377	₦74.8m	₦74.8m	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	429	314	₦2.06bn	₦2.05bn	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	5	1	₦2.05m	₦2.05m	41%	2.6 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦111k	₦111k	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦40.7k	₦40.7k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	109,638	2,708	₦577m	₦577m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	32,693	1,882	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	17%	6.6 yr
50 100m2	17,378	1,692	₦2.76bn	₦2.76bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	3,498	644	₦3.25bn	₦3bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	521	169	₦2.37bn	₦2.34bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	34	14	₦1.4bn	₦1.39bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	53,570	566	₦2.8bn	₦2.61bn	5%	17.4 yr
Urban	45,905	2,005	₦2.87bn	₦2.81bn	7%	14.9 yr
Rural	27,701	550	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	7%	15.1 yr
Dense Urban	20,991	2,106	₦2.34bn	₦2.32bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban Centre	15,595	1,882	₦2.34bn	₦2.33bn	23%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	111,476	2,792	₦389m	₦389m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	18,726	1,989	₦3.24bn	₦3.24bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	12,020	801	₦3.81bn	₦3.54bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	9,981	1	₦166m	₦166m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	6,610	303	₦806m	₦806m	21%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,114	290	₦187m	₦187m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	396	265	₦1.36bn	₦1.36bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	349	80	₦225m	₦225m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship Center	206	127	₦13.3m	₦13.3m	59%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	204	123	₦12.8m	₦12.8m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	201	24	₦330m	₦330m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	137	99	₦132m	₦132m	85%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	163,762	7,109	₦11.6bn	₦11.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	162,777	6,690	₦8.97bn	₦8.7bn	7%	14.6 yr
SME High	551	104	₦555m	₦555m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	434	315	₦2.06bn	₦2.05bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	111,622	2,871	₦394m	₦394m
2.0	21,163	1,640	₦3.6bn	₦3.45bn
3.0	10,594	1,219	₦4.89bn	₦4.76bn
1.0	10,149	1,063	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn
4.0	9,916	308	₦1.29bn	₦1.28bn
5.0	311	8	₦270m	₦270m
6.0	7	0	₦14.8m	₦14.8m