Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Zaki, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Zaki has 124,997 buildings with a viable rooftop and 420 MWp of roof capacity. 1% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.24bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

124,997

Usable roof area

1.9 km²

420 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.24bn/yr

7.48 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.4 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Zaki

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.24bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.91bn

Lifetime cash saved₦421bn

NPV₦61.1bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.4 yr

Unlocked energy7.34 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity51.7 MWp

Capex₦57.6bn

Year-one energy value₦63.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.99tn

NPV₦521bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Zaki's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 51.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦57.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦63.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦521bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Zaki pays back quickly

Of the 120,506 buildings in Zaki with a modelled payback, 12.3% pay back inside five years and 1.5% inside three.

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How much of Zaki's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Zaki consume 14.9 GWh/yr but want 22.2 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Zaki

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Zaki actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 120,506 buildings with a modelled result out of 124,997 in Zaki. 19,905 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,844 (2%)

Under 5 years14,806 (12%)

Under 7 years19,967 (17%)

Under 10 years29,042 (24%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%25,932 (21%)

Above 15%19,905 (16%)

Above 20%16,106 (13%)

Above 25%12,531 (10%)

CO₂ avoided

14.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.58 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.34 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

245k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Zaki.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Zaki

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	42,154	259	₦1bn	₦973m	5%	17.6 yr
C	41,106	1,040	₦3.01bn	₦2.82bn	5%	17.6 yr
E	36,452	287	₦2.75bn	₦2.65bn	5%	17.4 yr
B	5,285	215	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	123,992	1,243	₦5.55bn	₦5.24bn	5%	17.4 yr
Worship	450	201	₦48.6m	₦48.6m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	377	253	₦2.44bn	₦2.43bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	165	101	₦192m	₦192m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	8	3	₦3.11m	₦3.11m	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	5	0	₦37.5k	₦37.5k	19%	5.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	100,060	862	₦368m	₦365m	3%	18.6 yr
30 50m2	15,964	333	₦416m	₦416m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	7,193	269	₦740m	₦733m	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,472	231	₦2.02bn	₦1.8bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	271	85	₦2.26bn	₦2.18bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	37	21	₦2.43bn	₦2.42bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	77,890	685	₦2.45bn	₦2.35bn	3%	18.9 yr
Rural	26,206	810	₦3.73bn	₦3.5bn	7%	13.9 yr
Urban	14,641	105	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	5%	16.9 yr
Dense Urban	6,260	201	₦801m	₦796m	19%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	98,465	187	₦177m	₦177m	3%	18.4 yr
Residential	11,302	818	₦4.41bn	₦4.11bn	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Small	11,040	238	₦908m	₦901m	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	3,184	0	₦54.2m	₦54.2m	23%	4.9 yr
Institutional	313	171	₦1.56bn	₦1.56bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	152	68	₦8.91m	₦8.91m	31%	3.4 yr
Place Of Worship	147	67	₦8.64m	₦8.64m	27%	4.1 yr
Educational Facility	94	61	₦94.2m	₦94.2m	87%	1.1 yr
Hospital	80	56	₦707m	₦693m	59%	1.9 yr
School	80	53	₦51.9m	₦51.9m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	63	42	₦217m	₦217m	57%	1.9 yr
Clinic	50	31	₦33.3m	₦33.3m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	124,997	1,801	₦8.24bn	₦7.91bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	124,613	1,546	₦5.79bn	₦5.48bn	5%	17.4 yr
Enterprise	384	255	₦2.45bn	₦2.43bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	98,603	244	₦182m	₦182m
2.0	12,447	789	₦1.69bn	₦1.49bn
1.0	7,661	482	₦374m	₦365m
3.0	3,761	286	₦5.94bn	₦5.82bn
4.0	2,525	0	₦53.9m	₦53.9m