Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Ningi, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Ningi has 259,496 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.12 GWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦13.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

259,496

Usable roof area

5.16 km²

1.12 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦13.4bn/yr

12 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

16.6 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ningi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦13.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦13.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦725bn

NPV₦99.3bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback16.6 yr

Unlocked energy15.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity117 MWp

Capex₦130bn

Year-one energy value₦143bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.73tn

NPV₦1.17tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ningi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 117 MWp
Capital cost: ₦130bn
Year 1 savings: ₦143bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.17tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ningi pays back quickly

Of the 256,770 buildings in Ningi with a modelled payback, 15.1% pay back inside five years and 1.8% inside three.

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How much of Ningi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ningi consume 28.3 GWh/yr but want 43.6 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ningi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ningi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 256,770 buildings with a modelled result out of 259,496 in Ningi. 51,302 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,686 (2%)

Under 5 years38,854 (15%)

Under 7 years51,431 (20%)

Under 10 years76,199 (30%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%67,685 (26%)

Above 15%51,302 (20%)

Above 20%42,365 (16%)

Above 25%32,665 (13%)

CO₂ avoided

26.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.17 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

525k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ningi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ningi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	84,328	1,398	₦3.19bn	₦2.99bn	5%	17.1 yr
D	75,918	337	₦3.53bn	₦3.53bn	5%	17.4 yr
E	71,015	984	₦2.79bn	₦2.79bn	5%	16.9 yr
B	25,021	1,608	₦3.86bn	₦3.77bn	21%	5.1 yr
A	3,214	0	₦21.2m	₦21.2m	9%	8.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	257,912	3,279	₦7.79bn	₦7.58bn	5%	16.6 yr
Commercial General	558	359	₦528m	₦528m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	451	335	₦4.97bn	₦4.88bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	358	166	₦45.7m	₦45.7m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	211	184	₦55.9m	₦55.9m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	6	4	₦3.35m	₦3.35m	51%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	187,281	1,562	₦537m	₦536m	5%	18.1 yr
30 50m2	41,683	975	₦1.01bn	₦812m	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	23,788	803	₦1.9bn	₦1.9bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	5,757	743	₦2.97bn	₦2.97bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	928	212	₦3.11bn	₦3.02bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	59	32	₦3.86bn	₦3.86bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	135,659	850	₦3.61bn	₦3.61bn	3%	18.4 yr
Urban	57,784	1,266	₦5.87bn	₦5.58bn	7%	14.9 yr
Rural	33,149	945	₦1.3bn	₦1.29bn	9%	13.6 yr
Dense Urban	17,276	53	₦396m	₦396m	17%	5.9 yr
Urban Centre	15,628	1,213	₦2.22bn	₦2.22bn	17%	5.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	204,666	1,526	₦534m	₦534m	5%	17.6 yr
Residential Small	32,197	1,008	₦2.6bn	₦2.4bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	13,342	745	₦4.6bn	₦4.6bn	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Informal	5,527	0	₦27.4m	₦27.4m	11%	8.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,172	0	₦24.5m	₦24.5m	17%	5.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	358	166	₦45.7m	₦45.7m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	284	223	₦3.86bn	₦3.85bn	61%	1.6 yr
Market	159	157	₦31.4m	₦31.4m	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	139	34	₦97.2m	₦97.2m	39%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	132	99	₦148m	₦148m	89%	1.1 yr
School	96	71	₦61.8m	₦61.8m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	84	56	₦957m	₦866m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	259,496	4,327	₦13.4bn	₦13.1bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	258,845	3,933	₦8.25bn	₦8.04bn	5%	16.6 yr
Enterprise	457	339	₦4.98bn	₦4.88bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	194	55	₦170m	₦170m	39%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	204,654	1,551	₦537m	₦537m
2.0	23,971	975	₦2.05bn	₦2.04bn
3.0	14,648	1,197	₦9.5bn	₦9.41bn
1.0	12,534	589	₦1.08bn	₦881m
4.0	3,623	14	₦175m	₦175m
5.0	66	1	₦51.7m	₦51.7m