Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Misau, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Misau has 134,122 buildings with a viable rooftop and 742 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦20.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

134,122

Usable roof area

3.37 km²

742 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦20.8bn/yr

18.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Misau

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦20.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦20.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.07tn

NPV₦160bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.9 yr

Unlocked energy18.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity99.7 MWp

Capex₦106bn

Year-one energy value₦108bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.07tn

NPV₦875bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Misau's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 99.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦106bn
Year 1 savings: ₦108bn/yr
NPV: ₦875bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Misau pays back quickly

Of the 133,846 buildings in Misau with a modelled payback, 25.4% pay back inside five years and 6.5% inside three.

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How much of Misau's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Misau consume 42.6 GWh/yr but want 61 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Misau

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Misau actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 133,846 buildings with a modelled result out of 134,122 in Misau. 46,776 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,671 (6%)

Under 5 years34,015 (25%)

Under 7 years46,863 (35%)

Under 10 years56,060 (42%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%53,403 (40%)

Above 15%46,776 (35%)

Above 20%37,591 (28%)

Above 25%28,641 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

38.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

18.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

418k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Misau.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Misau

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	36,145	1,424	₦3.76bn	₦3.5bn	5%	16.6 yr
D	30,970	1,203	₦1.9bn	₦1.9bn	5%	16.4 yr
E	28,755	767	₦1.68bn	₦1.65bn	5%	16.9 yr
B	21,236	1,893	₦6.91bn	₦6.65bn	21%	5.1 yr
A	17,016	3,076	₦6.57bn	₦6.51bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	131,631	6,366	₦11bn	₦10.7bn	7%	14.9 yr
Commercial General	1,115	924	₦5.33bn	₦5.32bn	47%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	936	756	₦329m	₦329m	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	415	306	₦4.21bn	₦3.88bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	18	7	₦5.01m	₦5.01m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	5	2	₦2.02m	₦2.02m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦1.45m	₦1.45m	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	89,339	2,836	₦599m	₦568m	5%	17.1 yr
30 50m2	22,746	1,681	₦1.15bn	₦1.05bn	17%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	15,248	2,043	₦2.6bn	₦2.52bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	5,581	1,325	₦5.49bn	₦5.44bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,137	436	₦7.76bn	₦7.6bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	71	42	₦3.23bn	₦3.03bn	55%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	65,076	2,133	₦5.58bn	₦5.31bn	5%	16.9 yr
Unclassified	24,298	393	₦2.47bn	₦2.42bn	5%	17.1 yr
Urban Centre	20,983	4,075	₦11bn	₦10.7bn	25%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	19,045	1,546	₦1.3bn	₦1.3bn	21%	5.4 yr
Rural	4,720	216	₦459m	₦459m	7%	14.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	92,942	2,572	₦383m	₦383m	5%	16.9 yr
Residential Small	13,925	2,338	₦2.66bn	₦2.58bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	9,317	179	₦490m	₦490m	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	7,766	1,276	₦7.28bn	₦7.07bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	7,568	1	₦138m	₦133m	21%	5.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	936	756	₦329m	₦329m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial	492	478	₦4.12bn	₦4.11bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	434	325	₦897m	₦897m	43%	2.4 yr
Institutional	183	128	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	128	87	₦155m	₦155m	83%	1.1 yr
Hospital	94	81	₦1.6bn	₦1.43bn	59%	1.9 yr
Apartment	92	0	₦3.55m	₦3.55m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	134,122	8,363	₦20.8bn	₦20.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	132,774	7,250	₦11.6bn	₦11.3bn	7%	14.9 yr
SME High	929	806	₦5.02bn	₦5.01bn	47%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	419	307	₦4.21bn	₦3.88bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	91,002	2,506	₦365m	₦365m
2.0	12,907	1,890	₦2.24bn	₦2.15bn
3.0	12,591	2,504	₦11.6bn	₦11.2bn
4.0	9,529	404	₦1.56bn	₦1.51bn
1.0	7,709	691	₦790m	₦673m
5.0	310	296	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn
6.0	74	72	₦2.51bn	₦2.51bn