Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Katagum, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Katagum has 206,298 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.6 GWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦36bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

206,298

Usable roof area

7.22 km²

1.6 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦36bn/yr

36.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.9 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Katagum

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦36bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦35.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.92tn

NPV₦289bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.9 yr

Unlocked energy35 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity147 MWp

Capex₦155bn

Year-one energy value₦141bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.62tn

NPV₦1.12tn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Katagum's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 147 MWp
Capital cost: ₦155bn
Year 1 savings: ₦141bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.12tn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Katagum pays back quickly

Of the 204,511 buildings in Katagum with a modelled payback, 31.8% pay back inside five years and 6.6% inside three.

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How much of Katagum's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Katagum consume 72.7 GWh/yr but want 108 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Katagum

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Katagum actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 204,511 buildings with a modelled result out of 206,298 in Katagum. 91,176 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,585 (7%)

Under 5 years64,957 (32%)

Under 7 years91,462 (45%)

Under 10 years109,814 (54%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%105,452 (51%)

Above 15%91,176 (44%)

Above 20%72,501 (35%)

Above 25%52,294 (25%)

CO₂ avoided

66.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

35 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

357k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Katagum.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Katagum

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	62,383	6,385	₦9.18bn	₦9.17bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	45,765	927	₦8.33bn	₦8.32bn	5%	16.6 yr
D	36,955	1,359	₦4.41bn	₦4.36bn	5%	16.9 yr
E	30,675	680	₦4.22bn	₦4.06bn	5%	17.1 yr
B	30,520	3,638	₦9.88bn	₦9.74bn	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	202,121	10,073	₦14bn	₦14bn	11%	9.1 yr
Commercial General	1,668	1,059	₦4.81bn	₦4.71bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,558	1,226	₦298m	₦298m	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	499	329	₦16.8bn	₦16.6bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	409	292	₦70.4m	₦70.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	21	9	₦12.8m	₦12.8m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	7	0	₦2.74m	₦2.74m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	6	0	₦7.26m	₦7.26m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	5	0	₦2.59m	₦2.59m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	4	1	₦2.31m	₦2.31m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	118,105	4,533	₦743m	₦741m	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	35,223	2,134	₦809m	₦809m	19%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	33,491	2,836	₦2.18bn	₦2.15bn	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	15,836	2,379	₦4.67bn	₦4.67bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	3,313	914	₦8.23bn	₦8.15bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	330	193	₦19.4bn	₦19.1bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	77,526	2,234	₦15.9bn	₦15.7bn	5%	17.4 yr
Urban Centre	62,110	6,402	₦9.94bn	₦9.94bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	34,485	2,050	₦7.87bn	₦7.76bn	11%	9.4 yr
Rural	22,490	805	₦1.2bn	₦1.15bn	9%	9.4 yr
Dense Urban	9,687	1,498	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	118,383	3,176	₦614m	₦614m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Informal	30,802	1,031	₦870m	₦870m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Small	22,522	2,268	₦1.84bn	₦1.81bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	15,735	1,807	₦880m	₦880m	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	14,185	1,684	₦9.77bn	₦9.75bn	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,559	1,227	₦300m	₦300m	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,079	634	₦2.92bn	₦2.92bn	49%	2.1 yr
Institutional	412	295	₦13.8bn	₦13.6bn	59%	1.9 yr
Apartment	316	74	₦41.7m	₦41.7m	31%	3.4 yr
Market	225	221	₦23.4m	₦23.4m	47%	2.4 yr
Duplex	178	33	₦14.3m	₦14.3m	31%	3.6 yr
Worship Center	138	99	₦19.7m	₦19.7m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	206,054	12,973	₦35.9bn	₦35.5bn
Retail	218	0	₦1.35m	₦1.35m
Farmland	21	14	₦110m	₦110m
Commercial	3	0	₦17.4m	₦17.4m
Orchard	2	2	₦2.75m	₦2.75m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	204,599	11,956	₦14.8bn	₦14.8bn	11%	8.9 yr
SME High	1,186	696	₦4.41bn	₦4.3bn	47%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	513	337	₦16.8bn	₦16.6bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	115,553	3,203	₦597m	₦597m
2.0	27,547	1,810	₦1.79bn	₦1.77bn
3.0	26,885	3,507	₦26.5bn	₦26.3bn
4.0	23,651	2,759	₦3.53bn	₦3.53bn
1.0	12,279	1,565	₦620m	₦619m
5.0	344	130	₦2.37bn	₦2.27bn
6.0	39	15	₦580m	₦579m