Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Dambam, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Dambam has 73,513 buildings with a viable rooftop and 343 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.82bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

73,513

Usable roof area

1.57 km²

343 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.82bn/yr

3.26 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dambam

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.82bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.66bn

Lifetime cash saved₦271bn

NPV₦36.8bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.4 yr

Unlocked energy7.94 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity46.5 MWp

Capex₦50.8bn

Year-one energy value₦56.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.62tn

NPV₦459bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Dambam's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 46.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦50.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦56.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦459bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dambam pays back quickly

Of the 72,497 buildings in Dambam with a modelled payback, 26.5% pay back inside five years and 2.1% inside three.

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How much of Dambam's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dambam consume 12.6 GWh/yr but want 20.5 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dambam

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dambam actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 72,497 buildings with a modelled result out of 73,513 in Dambam. 24,530 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,532 (2%)

Under 5 years19,241 (27%)

Under 7 years24,546 (34%)

Under 10 years29,727 (41%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%27,578 (38%)

Above 15%24,530 (33%)

Above 20%20,923 (28%)

Above 25%16,531 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

11.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.51 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.94 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

265k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dambam.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dambam

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	20,980	111	₦849m	₦765m	5%	15.9 yr
D	17,885	99	₦649m	₦649m	5%	16.4 yr
E	16,511	593	₦658m	₦657m	5%	16.1 yr
B	15,640	677	₦2.56bn	₦2.48bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	2,497	2	₦107m	₦107m	31%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	72,544	715	₦3.41bn	₦3.25bn	7%	14.6 yr
Commercial Retail	426	402	₦67.5m	₦67.5m	69%	1.6 yr
Anchor	292	195	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	178	131	₦228m	₦228m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	72	39	₦12m	₦12m	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	1	0	₦38.5k	₦38.5k	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	48,365	549	₦230m	₦230m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	15,711	315	₦493m	₦493m	11%	8.4 yr
50 100m2	7,493	285	₦939m	₦938m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,694	256	₦1.28bn	₦1.25bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	241	72	₦1.26bn	₦1.14bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	9	5	₦615m	₦615m	43%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	22,998	190	₦1.45bn	₦1.29bn	7%	15.6 yr
Unclassified	20,500	74	₦543m	₦543m	5%	17.1 yr
Rural	12,427	609	₦667m	₦667m	7%	15.1 yr
Urban Centre	9,357	558	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	31%	3.6 yr
Dense Urban	8,231	51	₦289m	₦289m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	51,413	61	₦118m	₦118m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	9,388	458	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	7,716	0	₦252m	₦252m	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	4,022	196	₦1.85bn	₦1.69bn	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	426	402	₦67.5m	₦67.5m	69%	1.6 yr
Institutional	156	104	₦355m	₦355m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	112	75	₦127m	₦127m	87%	1.1 yr
School	66	42	₦68.3m	₦68.3m	79%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	42	28	₦493m	₦493m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	39	38	₦34.4m	₦34.4m	71%	1.4 yr
Hospital	38	28	₦89.9m	₦89.9m	55%	1.9 yr
Clinic	30	18	₦20.4m	₦20.4m	43%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	73,513	1,482	₦4.82bn	₦4.66bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	73,180	1,248	₦3.68bn	₦3.52bn	7%	14.6 yr
Enterprise	293	195	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	40	39	₦34.9m	₦34.9m	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	51,429	68	₦118m	₦118m
2.0	6,908	415	₦1.25bn	₦1.21bn
4.0	6,213	5	₦268m	₦268m
3.0	4,545	408	₦2.66bn	₦2.54bn
1.0	4,418	586	₦524m	₦523m