Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Dass, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Dass has 39,225 buildings with a viable rooftop and 320 MWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

39,225

Usable roof area

1.45 km²

320 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10.3bn/yr

8.24 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.1 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dass

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦10.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦547bn

NPV₦86.5bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback7.1 yr

Unlocked energy10.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity53.3 MWp

Capex₦57.4bn

Year-one energy value₦64bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.03tn

NPV₦527bn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Dass's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 53.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦57.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦64bn/yr
NPV: ₦527bn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dass pays back quickly

Of the 38,963 buildings in Dass with a modelled payback, 43.7% pay back inside five years and 15.6% inside three.

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How much of Dass's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dass consume 16.5 GWh/yr but want 27.5 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dass

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dass actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 38,963 buildings with a modelled result out of 39,225 in Dass. 19,391 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,091 (16%)

Under 5 years17,020 (44%)

Under 7 years19,418 (50%)

Under 10 years23,447 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%21,964 (56%)

Above 15%19,391 (49%)

Above 20%17,623 (45%)

Above 25%15,911 (41%)

CO₂ avoided

20.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.22 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

222k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dass.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dass

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	12,469	2,305	₦3.79bn	₦3.79bn	9%	9.6 yr
D	10,596	1,694	₦2.81bn	₦2.73bn	9%	9.6 yr
E	8,247	1,320	₦2.37bn	₦2.37bn	9%	13.1 yr
B	7,913	900	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	38,615	5,710	₦8.91bn	₦8.84bn	13%	7.4 yr
Anchor	290	241	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	179	157	₦302m	₦302m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	86	81	₦14.7m	₦14.7m	69%	1.6 yr
Worship	55	30	₦9.36m	₦9.36m	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	16,824	1,819	₦229m	₦229m	5%	16.1 yr
30 50m2	10,009	1,540	₦626m	₦626m	11%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	8,749	1,673	₦2.41bn	₦2.39bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	3,175	989	₦4bn	₦3.94bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	450	190	₦2.31bn	₦2.31bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	18	8	₦694m	₦694m	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	14,208	2,933	₦5.12bn	₦5.07bn	11%	8.6 yr
Unclassified	10,599	359	₦1.25bn	₦1.22bn	7%	15.6 yr
Urban Centre	9,335	1,675	₦2.52bn	₦2.52bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	3,989	663	₦580m	₦580m	11%	9.1 yr
Dense Urban	1,094	589	₦800m	₦800m	71%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	21,381	2,186	₦216m	₦216m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential Small	10,186	2,353	₦3.05bn	₦3.03bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	2,903	1,020	₦5.56bn	₦5.5bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,681	0	₦28.2m	₦28.2m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,436	151	₦54.6m	₦54.6m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	153	121	₦377m	₦377m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	97	82	₦108m	₦108m	89%	1.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	86	81	₦14.7m	₦14.7m	69%	1.6 yr
School	77	64	₦79.4m	₦79.4m	87%	1.1 yr
Hospital	47	38	₦395m	₦395m	59%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	41	34	₦293m	₦293m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	40	40	₦39.2m	₦39.2m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	39,225	6,219	₦10.3bn	₦10.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	38,892	5,935	₦9.19bn	₦9.12bn	13%	7.4 yr
Enterprise	290	241	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	43	43	₦45.6m	₦45.6m	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	21,385	2,190	₦216m	₦216m
2.0	6,053	1,577	₦2.2bn	₦2.15bn
3.0	6,041	1,881	₦6.95bn	₦6.92bn
1.0	3,060	538	₦581m	₦579m
4.0	2,686	33	₦328m	₦328m