Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Jama'Are, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Jama'Are has 43,482 buildings with a viable rooftop and 251 MWp of roof capacity. 14% run a generator, and together they spend ₦17.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

43,482

Usable roof area

1.14 km²

251 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦17.6bn/yr

16.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

12.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Jama'Are

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦17.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦16.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦817bn

NPV₦131bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback12.9 yr

Unlocked energy8.28 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity38.5 MWp

Capex₦40.9bn

Year-one energy value₦41.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.93tn

NPV₦332bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Jama'Are's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 38.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦40.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦41.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦332bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Jama'Are pays back quickly

Of the 43,316 buildings in Jama'Are with a modelled payback, 36.5% pay back inside five years and 14.2% inside three.

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How much of Jama'Are's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Jama'Are consume 26.3 GWh/yr but want 34.6 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Jama'Are

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Jama'Are actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 43,316 buildings with a modelled result out of 43,482 in Jama'Are. 19,122 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,148 (14%)

Under 5 years15,798 (36%)

Under 7 years19,149 (44%)

Under 10 years21,651 (50%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%20,826 (48%)

Above 15%19,122 (44%)

Above 20%16,898 (39%)

Above 25%13,746 (32%)

CO₂ avoided

27.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.43 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.28 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

109k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Jama'Are.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Jama'Are

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	11,806	804	₦4.46bn	₦3.89bn	5%	17.1 yr
D	9,897	589	₦1.68bn	₦1.61bn	7%	15.4 yr
A	8,709	2,911	₦3.7bn	₦3.67bn	31%	3.6 yr
E	8,355	470	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	5%	17.1 yr
B	4,715	1,447	₦6.75bn	₦5.84bn	31%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	42,560	5,483	₦13bn	₦12.2bn	9%	13.4 yr
Anchor	259	207	₦3.38bn	₦2.62bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	249	191	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	212	203	₦103m	₦103m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	177	132	₦35m	₦35m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	24	5	₦5.54m	₦5.54m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦267k	₦267k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	28,123	2,351	₦393m	₦390m	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	7,710	1,417	₦735m	₦682m	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	5,214	1,373	₦1.61bn	₦1.59bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	2,032	817	₦4.98bn	₦4.49bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	386	249	₦7.6bn	₦7.18bn	65%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	17	14	₦2.33bn	₦1.75bn	71%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	21,508	2,135	₦5.95bn	₦5.46bn	5%	15.9 yr
Dense Urban	11,012	3,578	₦9.43bn	₦8.5bn	31%	3.6 yr
Unclassified	8,071	246	₦1.91bn	₦1.76bn	5%	17.4 yr
Rural	2,891	262	₦355m	₦355m	11%	9.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	24,856	1,300	₦159m	₦159m	5%	17.4 yr
Residential Small	5,791	2,645	₦2.07bn	₦2.04bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	5,357	300	₦165m	₦165m	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	4,503	991	₦10.5bn	₦9.72bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,037	236	₦143m	₦143m	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	212	203	₦103m	₦103m	63%	1.6 yr
Institutional	173	135	₦710m	₦710m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	116	99	₦828m	₦828m	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	75	58	₦113m	₦113m	89%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	59	44	₦8.81m	₦8.81m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	59	44	₦5.72m	₦5.72m	59%	1.9 yr
School	59	45	₦125m	₦125m	85%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	43,436	6,218	₦17.6bn	₦16.1bn
Farmland	41	3	₦10.5m	₦10.5m
Farmyard	5	0	₦270k	₦270k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	43,101	5,912	₦13.4bn	₦12.6bn	9%	13.1 yr
Enterprise	263	209	₦3.38bn	₦2.62bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	118	100	₦894m	₦889m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	24,886	1,320	₦161m	₦161m
4.0	6,102	1,365	₦1.98bn	₦1.95bn
2.0	5,194	1,102	₦1.79bn	₦1.72bn
3.0	4,641	1,868	₦12.9bn	₦11.4bn
1.0	2,653	561	₦387m	₦376m
5.0	4	3	₦94.2m	₦94.2m
6.0	2	2	₦339m	₦339m