Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Warji, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Warji has 51,702 buildings with a viable rooftop and 270 MWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

51,702

Usable roof area

1.23 km²

270 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.6bn/yr

6.09 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.4 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Warji

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.45bn

Lifetime cash saved₦334bn

NPV₦52.8bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.4 yr

Unlocked energy6.34 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity37.6 MWp

Capex₦40.8bn

Year-one energy value₦46.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.2tn

NPV₦384bn

Median IRR111%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Warji's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 37.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦40.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦46.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦384bn
Median IRR: 111%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Warji pays back quickly

Of the 51,399 buildings in Warji with a modelled payback, 25.5% pay back inside five years and 10.6% inside three.

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How much of Warji's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Warji consume 10.6 GWh/yr but want 16.9 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Warji

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Warji actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 51,399 buildings with a modelled result out of 51,702 in Warji. 15,743 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,464 (11%)

Under 5 years13,110 (26%)

Under 7 years15,765 (31%)

Under 10 years23,116 (45%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%19,908 (39%)

Above 15%15,743 (30%)

Above 20%13,820 (27%)

Above 25%12,040 (23%)

CO₂ avoided

12.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.19 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.34 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

161k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Warji.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Warji

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	20,934	2,388	₦3.44bn	₦3.41bn	9%	9.9 yr
E	16,048	1,890	₦1.99bn	₦1.89bn	9%	13.4 yr
D	14,720	1,168	₦1.17bn	₦1.15bn	7%	14.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	51,190	4,991	₦4.77bn	₦4.64bn	9%	13.6 yr
Anchor	294	261	₦1.59bn	₦1.57bn	85%	1.1 yr
Commercial General	148	128	₦211m	₦211m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	69	66	₦26.7m	₦26.7m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	1	0	₦57k	₦57k	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	30,576	2,357	₦246m	₦246m	5%	16.1 yr
30 50m2	13,763	1,574	₦643m	₦632m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	5,585	932	₦1.54bn	₦1.47bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,514	462	₦1.85bn	₦1.81bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	249	113	₦1.42bn	₦1.41bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	15	8	₦898m	₦877m	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	28,946	3,802	₦3.65bn	₦3.56bn	9%	13.1 yr
Dense Urban	9,322	1,238	₦1.82bn	₦1.82bn	11%	8.6 yr
Unclassified	7,015	216	₦742m	₦707m	5%	18.1 yr
Rural	6,419	190	₦378m	₦360m	9%	13.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	36,113	3,306	₦281m	₦281m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	7,400	1,255	₦1.98bn	₦1.9bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	5,363	430	₦2.49bn	₦2.45bn	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,310	0	₦12m	₦12m	11%	8.6 yr
Institutional	173	154	₦608m	₦608m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	109	97	₦132m	₦132m	91%	1.1 yr
School	74	66	₦74.9m	₦74.9m	89%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	45	39	₦854m	₦833m	61%	1.9 yr
Hospital	34	32	₦122m	₦122m	59%	1.9 yr
Clinic	27	22	₦25.9m	₦25.9m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	23	22	₦8.28m	₦8.28m	69%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	23	22	₦3.92m	₦3.92m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	51,702	5,446	₦6.6bn	₦6.45bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	51,407	5,185	₦5bn	₦4.88bn	9%	13.4 yr
Enterprise	295	261	₦1.59bn	₦1.57bn	85%	1.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	36,123	3,316	₦281m	₦281m
2.0	6,774	1,024	₦1.87bn	₦1.83bn
1.0	4,177	498	₦778m	₦730m
3.0	2,934	608	₦3.65bn	₦3.59bn
4.0	1,694	0	₦14.6m	₦14.6m