Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Kirfi, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Kirfi has 100,090 buildings with a viable rooftop and 435 MWp of roof capacity. 1% run a generator, and together they spend ₦3.71bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

100,090

Usable roof area

2 km²

435 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦3.71bn/yr

2.42 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.6 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kirfi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦3.71bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦3.61bn

Lifetime cash saved₦215bn

NPV₦26.8bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.6 yr

Unlocked energy6.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity53.3 MWp

Capex₦58.8bn

Year-one energy value₦65.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.08tn

NPV₦536bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kirfi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 53.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦58.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦65.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦536bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kirfi pays back quickly

Of the 99,744 buildings in Kirfi with a modelled payback, 17.5% pay back inside five years and 1.2% inside three.

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How much of Kirfi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kirfi consume 10.1 GWh/yr but want 17 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kirfi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kirfi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 99,744 buildings with a modelled result out of 100,090 in Kirfi. 25,894 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,212 (1%)

Under 5 years17,429 (17%)

Under 7 years25,953 (26%)

Under 10 years35,180 (35%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%31,183 (31%)

Above 15%25,894 (26%)

Above 20%19,812 (20%)

Above 25%14,365 (14%)

CO₂ avoided

8.96 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

261k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kirfi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Kirfi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	38,086	275	₦1.46bn	₦1.43bn	7%	15.1 yr
D	28,709	612	₦1.11bn	₦1.05bn	7%	15.4 yr
E	20,184	160	₦627m	₦625m	5%	16.1 yr
B	13,111	125	₦513m	₦513m	21%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	99,002	320	₦2.64bn	₦2.55bn	7%	14.9 yr
Commercial Retail	369	303	₦47.4m	₦47.4m	67%	1.6 yr
Anchor	352	273	₦755m	₦755m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	179	137	₦232m	₦232m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	174	133	₦26.4m	₦26.4m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	14	6	₦3.57m	₦3.57m	39%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	68,327	486	₦231m	₦231m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	20,747	221	₦449m	₦449m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	9,276	163	₦805m	₦805m	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,471	231	₦1.1bn	₦1.04bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	261	69	₦898m	₦871m	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	8	2	₦219m	₦219m	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	37,497	163	₦782m	₦755m	5%	17.1 yr
Rural	27,678	627	₦824m	₦824m	7%	14.1 yr
Urban	25,792	278	₦1.48bn	₦1.41bn	9%	13.4 yr
Dense Urban	9,123	104	₦627m	₦627m	19%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	75,664	146	₦185m	₦185m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	13,283	75	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	7,199	99	₦1.37bn	₦1.28bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,855	0	₦16.3m	₦16.3m	15%	7.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	369	303	₦47.4m	₦47.4m	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	213	162	₦227m	₦227m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	123	90	₦108m	₦108m	87%	1.1 yr
School	83	65	₦36.8m	₦36.8m	85%	1.1 yr
Hospital	65	54	₦391m	₦391m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	61	47	₦6.84m	₦6.84m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	54	42	₦4.45m	₦4.45m	65%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	48	39	₦198m	₦198m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	100,090	1,172	₦3.71bn	₦3.61bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	99,719	880	₦2.93bn	₦2.84bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	358	279	₦758m	₦758m	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	13	13	₦17.9m	₦17.9m	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	75,709	175	₦187m	₦187m
2.0	12,170	289	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn
3.0	5,172	256	₦2.15bn	₦2.06bn
1.0	5,058	451	₦279m	₦279m
4.0	1,981	1	₦29.2m	₦29.2m