Bauchi State

Rooftop solar in Giade, Bauchi: what the roofs are worth

Giade has 96,773 buildings with a viable rooftop and 447 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.82bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

96,773

Usable roof area

2.04 km²

447 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.82bn/yr

3.99 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Giade

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.82bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.77bn

Lifetime cash saved₦332bn

NPV₦45.6bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.9 yr

Unlocked energy9.67 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity63 MWp

Capex₦68.9bn

Year-one energy value₦78.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.66tn

NPV₦641bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Giade's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 63 MWp
Capital cost: ₦68.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦78.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦641bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Giade pays back quickly

Of the 96,633 buildings in Giade with a modelled payback, 22.3% pay back inside five years and 4.0% inside three.

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How much of Giade's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Giade consume 14.1 GWh/yr but want 23.8 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Giade

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Giade actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 96,633 buildings with a modelled result out of 96,773 in Giade. 30,590 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,874 (4%)

Under 5 years21,547 (22%)

Under 7 years30,652 (32%)

Under 10 years37,980 (39%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%35,335 (37%)

Above 15%30,590 (32%)

Above 20%24,072 (25%)

Above 25%18,289 (19%)

CO₂ avoided

13.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.11 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.67 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

359k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Giade.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Giade

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	30,977	1,481	₦1.59bn	₦1.55bn	7%	15.6 yr
E	23,116	685	₦1.06bn	₦1.05bn	5%	16.1 yr
D	22,800	205	₦858m	₦858m	5%	16.1 yr
B	19,880	1,569	₦2.32bn	₦2.32bn	21%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	95,969	3,209	₦4.49bn	₦4.44bn	7%	14.9 yr
Commercial Retail	313	310	₦45.7m	₦45.7m	67%	1.6 yr
Anchor	282	247	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	169	146	₦239m	₦239m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	34	25	₦4.92m	₦4.92m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	5	3	₦1.08m	₦1.08m	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦106k	₦106k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	65,646	1,834	₦317m	₦317m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	19,429	926	₦723m	₦723m	15%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	9,153	691	₦1.32bn	₦1.3bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	2,125	387	₦1.64bn	₦1.62bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	408	100	₦1.41bn	₦1.4bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	12	2	₦406m	₦406m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	57,185	2,142	₦3.11bn	₦3.08bn	7%	15.4 yr
Unclassified	18,909	71	₦493m	₦485m	5%	17.1 yr
Dense Urban	15,632	1,432	₦1.84bn	₦1.84bn	23%	4.9 yr
Rural	5,047	295	₦366m	₦365m	7%	14.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	69,853	1,376	₦247m	₦247m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	12,437	890	₦1.78bn	₦1.76bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	8,312	854	₦2.37bn	₦2.35bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	5,366	89	₦92.2m	₦92.2m	21%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	313	310	₦45.7m	₦45.7m	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	137	117	₦256m	₦256m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	94	84	₦97.2m	₦97.2m	87%	1.1 yr
School	66	58	₦46.3m	₦46.3m	85%	1.1 yr
Hospital	49	43	₦532m	₦532m	57%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	43	37	₦286m	₦286m	57%	1.9 yr
Clinic	28	24	₦25.6m	₦25.6m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	23	23	₦14m	₦14m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	96,773	3,940	₦5.82bn	₦5.77bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	96,448	3,656	₦4.74bn	₦4.7bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	287	250	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	38	34	₦35.4m	₦35.4m	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	69,864	1,386	₦247m	₦247m
2.0	11,293	1,066	₦1.79bn	₦1.77bn
1.0	6,212	791	₦745m	₦726m
3.0	5,114	631	₦2.93bn	₦2.92bn
4.0	4,290	66	₦108m	₦108m