Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Rivers State: buildings, spend and payback

1,362,675 buildings in Rivers State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦2.04tn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 39% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

1,362,675

Usable roof area

150 km²

33.8 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦2.04tn/yr

1.61 TWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Rivers

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦2.04tn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦1.68tn

Lifetime cash saved₦85.6tn

NPV₦12.5tn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy990 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity4.99 GWp

Capex₦4.89tn

Year-one energy value₦3.06tn

Lifetime energy value₦141tn

NPV₦22.4tn

Median IRR55%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Rivers State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 4.99 GWp
Capital cost: ₦4.89tn
Year 1 savings: ₦3.06tn/yr
NPV: ₦22.4tn
Median IRR: 55%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Rivers State pays back quickly

Of the 1,348,666 buildings in Rivers State with a modelled payback, 70.4% pay back inside five years and 27.0% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

70.4%

Payback under 3 years

27.0%

IRR above 20%

74.5%

Under 3 years · 27%3 – 5 years · 43%5 – 7 years · 15%7 – 10 years · 7%Over 10 years · 7%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Rivers State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Rivers State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Rivers State consume 3.47 TWh/yr but want 4.46 TWh/yr. The 22% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 78%Suppressed · 22%

Energy wanted

4.46 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

3.47 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

990 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Rivers State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 1,348,666 buildings with a modelled result out of 1,362,675 in Rivers State. 1,155,701 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years363,925 (27%)

Under 5 years949,897 (70%)

Under 7 years1,153,025 (85%)

Under 10 years1,251,063 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%1,238,300 (91%)

Above 15%1,155,701 (85%)

Above 20%1,015,114 (74%)

Above 25%537,661 (39%)

Electricity billing bands in Rivers State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Rivers State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	631,325	213,574	₦499bn	₦470bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	288,908	133,879	₦454bn	₦374bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	192,068	91,563	₦518bn	₦399bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	125,639	51,524	₦289bn	₦234bn	25%	4.6 yr
E	124,735	44,959	₦276bn	₦207bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	1,324,099	517,732	₦1.67tn	₦1.33tn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	17,681	7,704	₦103bn	₦102bn	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	8,092	4,578	₦241bn	₦231bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	5,403	2,311	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn	31%	3.4 yr
Worship	4,390	2,214	₦5.53bn	₦5.51bn	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	1,482	395	₦11.2bn	₦10.5bn	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	620	284	₦3.95bn	₦3.87bn	35%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	371	140	₦437m	₦437m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	320	66	₦1.53bn	₦1.5bn	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	166	61	₦302m	₦302m	33%	3.4 yr
Automotive	51	14	₦94.2m	₦94.2m	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	448,401	185,395	₦688bn	₦565bn	25%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	291,760	110,382	₦129bn	₦113bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	259,442	97,520	₦14.4bn	₦13.4bn	17%	5.9 yr
30 50m2	183,879	67,639	₦24.6bn	₦22.2bn	21%	5.1 yr
250 1000m2	174,142	72,300	₦890bn	₦693bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	5,051	2,263	₦291bn	₦277bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	870,849	330,669	₦630bn	₦610bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	196,096	101,333	₦456bn	₦389bn	33%	3.4 yr
Urban	154,654	72,229	₦514bn	₦391bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	108,521	21,495	₦259bn	₦193bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	32,555	9,773	₦179bn	₦101bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	375,101	100,185	₦120bn	₦117bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	265,242	100,029	₦64.5bn	₦63.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	229,572	110,907	₦181bn	₦157bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	219,037	84,154	₦10.6bn	₦10.6bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	209,334	111,972	₦1.29tn	₦972bn	31%	3.4 yr
Apartment	19,192	7,615	₦5.06bn	₦5.02bn	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	6,746	2,820	₦36.3bn	₦35.7bn	33%	3.1 yr
Duplex	6,604	2,862	₦2.2bn	₦2.17bn	25%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	5,442	2,394	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	4,611	2,823	₦192bn	₦189bn	37%	2.9 yr
Unknown	3,197	1,029	₦11.4bn	₦11.3bn	29%	3.6 yr
School	2,456	1,337	₦11.5bn	₦11.5bn	43%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	1,328,216	522,798	₦1.88tn	₦1.54tn
Industrial	29,982	10,830	₦144bn	₦137bn
Commercial	3,489	1,699	₦9.13bn	₦8.96bn
Retail	674	115	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn
Farmland	179	51	₦88.5m	₦88.5m
Orchard	79	0	₦3.75m	₦3.75m
Farmyard	56	6	₦19m	₦15.8m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	1,344,063	526,467	₦1.73tn	₦1.39tn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	10,317	4,349	₦59.6bn	₦58.4bn	33%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	8,295	4,683	₦244bn	₦234bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	431,932	196,386	₦1.5tn	₦1.19tn
4.0	387,178	136,636	₦282bn	₦276bn
2.0	270,124	100,292	₦172bn	₦144bn
0.0	206,949	81,412	₦10.3bn	₦10.3bn
1.0	60,717	18,666	₦17.5bn	₦13.8bn
5.0	4,158	1,474	₦24.6bn	₦24.1bn
6.0	1,617	633	₦29.1bn	₦28.2bn