Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Okrika, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Okrika has 36,081 buildings with a viable rooftop and 793 MWp of roof capacity. 47% run a generator, and together they spend ₦110bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

36,081

Usable roof area

3.53 km²

793 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦110bn/yr

82.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Okrika

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦110bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦93.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.56tn

NPV₦668bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy32.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity218 MWp

Capex₦224bn

Year-one energy value₦123bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.61tn

NPV₦865bn

Median IRR55%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Okrika's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 218 MWp
Capital cost: ₦224bn
Year 1 savings: ₦123bn/yr
NPV: ₦865bn
Median IRR: 55%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Okrika pays back quickly

Of the 35,937 buildings in Okrika with a modelled payback, 79.9% pay back inside five years and 32.1% inside three.

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How much of Okrika's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Okrika consume 195 GWh/yr but want 228 GWh/yr. The 14% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Okrika

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Okrika actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 35,937 buildings with a modelled result out of 36,081 in Okrika. 32,649 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,530 (32%)

Under 5 years28,725 (80%)

Under 7 years32,596 (91%)

Under 10 years34,461 (96%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%34,266 (95%)

Above 15%32,649 (90%)

Above 20%30,108 (83%)

Above 25%16,670 (46%)

CO₂ avoided

160 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

47.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

32.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

425k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Okrika.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Okrika

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	19,294	9,857	₦79.4bn	₦66.4bn	29%	3.6 yr
A	15,655	7,018	₦30.1bn	₦26.9bn	25%	4.6 yr
D	538	0	₦107m	₦101m	9%	9.9 yr
E	430	2	₦744m	₦119m	9%	12.9 yr
C	164	0	₦57.6m	₦33.2m	17%	6.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	35,454	16,480	₦100bn	₦83.9bn	25%	4.6 yr
Anchor	265	181	₦8.2bn	₦7.42bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	178	108	₦447m	₦433m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	152	98	₦1.63bn	₦1.59bn	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	14	6	₦145m	₦143m	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	9	2	₦12.5m	₦10.9m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	6	1	₦8.37m	₦8.37m	33%	3.4 yr
Productive Use	2	1	₦3.08m	₦3.08m	31%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1	0	₦42.3k	₦42.3k	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	10,238	5,390	₦42.3bn	₦35.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	8,220	3,531	₦696m	₦686m	21%	4.9 yr
50 100m2	8,195	3,745	₦7.92bn	₦7.31bn	25%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	5,642	2,231	₦1.28bn	₦1.22bn	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	3,615	1,916	₦48.3bn	₦39.2bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	171	64	₦9.92bn	₦9.34bn	25%	4.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	28,385	15,175	₦81.4bn	₦73.3bn	29%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	5,221	780	₦13.8bn	₦9.63bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	1,312	625	₦4.66bn	₦3.66bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	1,163	297	₦10.6bn	₦6.9bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	11,036	4,869	₦14bn	₦14bn	25%	4.6 yr
Shed	8,370	3,197	₦409m	₦409m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Small	6,352	3,788	₦11bn	₦10.2bn	35%	3.1 yr
Residential	5,185	3,471	₦72.7bn	₦57.5bn	39%	2.9 yr
Residential Formal	4,511	1,155	₦1.86bn	₦1.86bn	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	163	119	₦5.89bn	₦5.69bn	37%	2.9 yr
School	91	63	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	81	62	₦705m	₦705m	53%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	78	41	₦82.9m	₦82.9m	33%	3.1 yr
Place Of Worship	66	39	₦54.9m	₦54.9m	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial	31	9	₦117m	₦113m	33%	3.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	31	20	₦590m	₦428m	43%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	34,052	16,261	₦100bn	₦85.1bn
Industrial	2,008	616	₦10.2bn	₦8.41bn
Retail	21	0	₦2.75m	₦2.75m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	35,788	16,686	₦102bn	₦86bn	25%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	274	183	₦8.22bn	₦7.43bn	49%	2.1 yr
SME High	19	8	₦140m	₦133m	33%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	11,444	5,919	₦19.3bn	₦15.8bn
3.0	8,657	4,929	₦78.9bn	₦66.1bn
0.0	8,149	3,168	₦403m	₦403m
4.0	4,416	1,549	₦9.81bn	₦9.63bn
1.0	3,414	1,312	₦1.99bn	₦1.61bn
5.0	1	0	₦3.47m	₦3.47m