Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Eleme, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Eleme has 71,192 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.9 GWp of roof capacity. 42% run a generator, and together they spend ₦63.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

71,192

Usable roof area

8.42 km²

1.9 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦63.8bn/yr

44.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Eleme

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦63.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦62.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.38tn

NPV₦445bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy60.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity264 MWp

Capex₦249bn

Year-one energy value₦125bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.76tn

NPV₦863bn

Median IRR53%

Median payback2.1 yr

Three ways to size Eleme's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 264 MWp
Capital cost: ₦249bn
Year 1 savings: ₦125bn/yr
NPV: ₦863bn
Median IRR: 53%
Median payback: 2.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Eleme pays back quickly

Of the 70,842 buildings in Eleme with a modelled payback, 75.3% pay back inside five years and 22.4% inside three.

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How much of Eleme's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Eleme consume 154 GWh/yr but want 215 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Eleme

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Eleme actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 70,842 buildings with a modelled result out of 71,192 in Eleme. 64,742 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,896 (22%)

Under 5 years53,374 (75%)

Under 7 years64,593 (91%)

Under 10 years68,649 (97%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%68,299 (96%)

Above 15%64,742 (91%)

Above 20%57,420 (81%)

Above 25%28,784 (40%)

CO₂ avoided

127 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

23.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

60.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

215k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Eleme.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Eleme

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	42,896	18,450	₦34.5bn	₦34.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
A	23,460	9,303	₦26.8bn	₦25.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	3,943	1,133	₦1.3bn	₦1.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	892	816	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	55%	1.9 yr
E	1	0	₦2.23k	₦2.23k	7%	14.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	69,120	28,922	₦36.9bn	₦36.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	1,028	384	₦5.51bn	₦5.38bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Retail	551	179	₦97.6m	₦97.6m	31%	3.4 yr
Anchor	275	126	₦20.8bn	₦20.3bn	39%	2.9 yr
Worship	142	57	₦126m	₦126m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	31	14	₦304m	₦288m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	29	15	₦95.7m	₦95.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	11	4	₦9.13m	₦9.13m	33%	3.4 yr
Productive Use	4	1	₦3.25m	₦3.25m	33%	3.4 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦696k	₦696k	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	25,732	11,295	₦15.4bn	₦15.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	13,931	5,450	₦2.05bn	₦2.05bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	12,980	5,141	₦454m	₦452m	19%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	9,222	4,241	₦21bn	₦20.4bn	25%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	8,991	3,422	₦601m	₦599m	23%	4.9 yr
Over 1000m2	336	153	₦24.3bn	₦23.8bn	31%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	66,214	28,328	₦49.5bn	₦49.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	3,658	846	₦6.99bn	₦6.88bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	1,320	528	₦7.32bn	₦6.44bn	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	26,263	9,087	₦6.18bn	₦6.18bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	15,214	6,034	₦5.09bn	₦5.09bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	9,856	3,913	₦398m	₦398m	23%	4.9 yr
Residential	7,657	4,532	₦21.8bn	₦21.2bn	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Small	6,250	3,692	₦2.15bn	₦2.15bn	33%	3.4 yr
Apartment	3,048	1,241	₦976m	₦976m	23%	4.6 yr
Duplex	831	423	₦302m	₦302m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	552	179	₦98.7m	₦98.7m	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	451	153	₦2.37bn	₦2.36bn	33%	3.4 yr
Institutional	207	90	₦20.1bn	₦19.7bn	31%	3.4 yr
Unknown	202	98	₦1.38bn	₦1.32bn	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial	153	84	₦1.17bn	₦1.12bn	35%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	68,164	29,057	₦43.5bn	₦43.1bn
Industrial	3,028	645	₦20.4bn	₦19.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	70,279	29,324	₦39.4bn	₦38.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	628	249	₦3.62bn	₦3.55bn	33%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	285	129	₦20.9bn	₦20.3bn	39%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	32,905	13,103	₦25.4bn	₦25.3bn
3.0	19,607	9,688	₦34.4bn	₦33.3bn
0.0	9,204	3,673	₦375m	₦375m
2.0	7,464	2,518	₦1.13bn	₦1.1bn
1.0	1,838	639	₦119m	₦119m
5.0	160	73	₦1.97bn	₦1.93bn
6.0	14	8	₦443m	₦432m