Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Oyigbo, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Oyigbo has 71,921 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.77 GWp of roof capacity. 44% run a generator, and together they spend ₦33.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

71,921

Usable roof area

7.85 km²

1.77 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦33.3bn/yr

24.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oyigbo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦33.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦32.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.75tn

NPV₦227bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy29.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity136 MWp

Capex₦126bn

Year-one energy value₦61.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.82tn

NPV₦417bn

Median IRR53%

Median payback2.1 yr

Three ways to size Oyigbo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 136 MWp
Capital cost: ₦126bn
Year 1 savings: ₦61.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦417bn
Median IRR: 53%
Median payback: 2.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oyigbo pays back quickly

Of the 71,103 buildings in Oyigbo with a modelled payback, 70.7% pay back inside five years and 17.7% inside three.

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How much of Oyigbo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oyigbo consume 84.7 GWh/yr but want 114 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oyigbo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oyigbo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 71,103 buildings with a modelled result out of 71,921 in Oyigbo. 62,265 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,581 (18%)

Under 5 years50,291 (71%)

Under 7 years62,122 (87%)

Under 10 years67,086 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%66,585 (93%)

Above 15%62,265 (87%)

Above 20%54,694 (76%)

Above 25%28,906 (40%)

CO₂ avoided

64.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

29.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

107k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oyigbo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oyigbo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	62,172	27,965	₦26.7bn	₦26.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	5,577	1,530	₦1.64bn	₦1.64bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	2,211	723	₦3.15bn	₦3.14bn	23%	4.9 yr
C	1,639	1,112	₦1.72bn	₦1.7bn	51%	2.1 yr
E	322	11	₦44.9m	₦44.9m	11%	8.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	68,598	29,646	₦15.8bn	₦15.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	1,714	934	₦12.2bn	₦11.8bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	824	393	₦269m	₦269m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	517	252	₦4.48bn	₦4.4bn	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	172	82	₦180m	₦180m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	79	26	₦329m	₦328m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	15	7	₦44.6m	₦44m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦480k	₦480k	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦434k	₦434k	47%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	27,365	12,384	₦11.2bn	₦11.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	14,760	6,165	₦1.75bn	₦1.67bn	23%	4.9 yr
Under 30m2	12,276	4,965	₦472m	₦429m	17%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	8,765	4,113	₦15.4bn	₦15bn	25%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	8,608	3,641	₦520m	₦515m	21%	5.1 yr
Over 1000m2	147	73	₦3.97bn	₦3.9bn	31%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	61,523	27,414	₦25.3bn	₦24.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	3,300	1,241	₦1.83bn	₦1.82bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	3,080	1,420	₦1.82bn	₦1.81bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	2,520	668	₦2.3bn	₦2.23bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	1,498	598	₦1.95bn	₦1.95bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	24,226	7,656	₦1.99bn	₦1.99bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential	12,532	7,561	₦10.6bn	₦10.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	10,482	5,694	₦1.39bn	₦1.26bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	8,273	3,370	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	7,244	3,337	₦347m	₦347m	23%	4.9 yr
Apartment	5,070	1,763	₦380m	₦380m	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,213	678	₦9.34bn	₦9.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	822	392	₦268m	₦268m	33%	3.4 yr
Duplex	771	265	₦74.5m	₦74.5m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	338	158	₦3.54bn	₦3.54bn	31%	3.6 yr
Educational Facility	194	92	₦964m	₦964m	41%	2.6 yr
School	187	84	₦366m	₦366m	41%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	71,405	31,191	₦32.9bn	₦32.3bn
Industrial	516	150	₦350m	₦350m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	70,064	30,326	₦18bn	₦17.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	1,301	748	₦10.5bn	₦10.2bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	556	267	₦4.73bn	₦4.64bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	37,725	13,929	₦8.29bn	₦8.11bn
3.0	18,027	9,941	₦13bn	₦13bn
0.0	7,147	3,336	₦345m	₦345m
2.0	6,874	3,231	₦1.27bn	₦1.23bn
1.0	1,108	273	₦89.3m	₦89.3m
5.0	824	466	₦4.64bn	₦4.64bn
6.0	216	165	₦5.58bn	₦5.29bn