Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Tai, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Tai has 23,476 buildings with a viable rooftop and 445 MWp of roof capacity. 28% run a generator, and together they spend ₦21.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

23,476

Usable roof area

1.98 km²

445 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦21.9bn/yr

18.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Tai

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦21.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦21.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.13tn

NPV₦164bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy18.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity93.2 MWp

Capex₦92.1bn

Year-one energy value₦68.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.25tn

NPV₦532bn

Median IRR77%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Tai's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 93.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦92.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦68.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦532bn
Median IRR: 77%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Tai pays back quickly

Of the 23,370 buildings in Tai with a modelled payback, 68.8% pay back inside five years and 28.0% inside three.

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How much of Tai's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Tai consume 37 GWh/yr but want 55.3 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Tai

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Tai actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 23,370 buildings with a modelled result out of 23,476 in Tai. 20,260 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,539 (28%)

Under 5 years16,081 (69%)

Under 7 years20,176 (86%)

Under 10 years21,795 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%21,622 (92%)

Above 15%20,260 (86%)

Above 20%16,878 (72%)

Above 25%6,877 (29%)

CO₂ avoided

40 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

18.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

178k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Tai.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Tai

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	15,526	3,954	₦13bn	₦12.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	3,787	980	₦3.74bn	₦3.66bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	2,582	1,160	₦4.55bn	₦4.06bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	1,580	434	₦583m	₦583m	23%	4.6 yr
A	1	0	₦12.4k	₦12.4k	21%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	22,493	5,907	₦16.7bn	₦16.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	472	280	₦2.13bn	₦2.13bn	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	189	109	₦93.2m	₦93.2m	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	155	108	₦168m	₦168m	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	151	119	₦2.71bn	₦2.63bn	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	14	5	₦26.7m	₦26.7m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦593k	₦593k	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	6,492	2,133	₦7.97bn	₦7.72bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	5,583	1,356	₦342m	₦214m	17%	6.6 yr
50 100m2	5,374	1,378	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	4,280	1,008	₦349m	₦349m	19%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,698	631	₦9.52bn	₦9.16bn	25%	4.6 yr
Over 1000m2	49	22	₦2.28bn	₦2.28bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	11,065	3,016	₦9.45bn	₦9.43bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	5,623	1,998	₦4.76bn	₦4.68bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	5,067	1,364	₦6.63bn	₦6.14bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	1,721	150	₦1.02bn	₦863m	21%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	8,866	2,645	₦2.35bn	₦2.22bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	6,307	1,266	₦154m	₦154m	17%	6.6 yr
Residential	5,906	1,996	₦14.1bn	₦13.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,414	0	₦114m	₦114m	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	280	153	₦1.36bn	₦1.36bn	47%	2.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	176	109	₦51.6m	₦51.6m	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	134	99	₦983m	₦983m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial	77	50	₦381m	₦381m	45%	2.4 yr
Worship Center	54	35	₦22.3m	₦22.3m	43%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	53	40	₦578m	₦578m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	43	33	₦15.7m	₦15.7m	47%	2.1 yr
School	40	28	₦247m	₦247m	59%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	22,972	6,310	₦20.3bn	₦19.5bn
Industrial	215	42	₦967m	₦967m
Commercial	206	163	₦533m	₦529m
Retail	40	0	₦43.4m	₦43.4m
Farmland	25	13	₦41.6m	₦41.6m
Farmyard	17	0	₦668k	₦668k
Orchard	1	0	₦42.6k	₦42.6k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	22,945	6,201	₦17.3bn	₦16.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	372	203	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn	45%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	159	124	₦2.74bn	₦2.66bn	53%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	10,012	3,365	₦17.4bn	₦16.9bn
0.0	6,311	1,267	₦154m	₦154m
2.0	4,673	1,353	₦1.35bn	₦1.21bn
4.0	1,250	175	₦2.27bn	₦2.2bn
1.0	1,171	342	₦167m	₦163m
5.0	50	19	₦450m	₦446m
6.0	9	7	₦69m	₦69m