Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Khana, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Khana has 74,010 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.42 GWp of roof capacity. 57% run a generator, and together they spend ₦137bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

74,010

Usable roof area

6.34 km²

1.42 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦137bn/yr

123 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.1 yr

Median IRR 53% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Khana

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦137bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦129bn

Lifetime cash saved₦6.54tn

NPV₦1.01tn

Median IRR53%

Median payback2.1 yr

Unlocked energy43.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity266 MWp

Capex₦271bn

Year-one energy value₦221bn

Lifetime energy value₦10.4tn

NPV₦1.74tn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Khana's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 266 MWp
Capital cost: ₦271bn
Year 1 savings: ₦221bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.74tn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Khana pays back quickly

Of the 73,733 buildings in Khana with a modelled payback, 73.7% pay back inside five years and 55.7% inside three.

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How much of Khana's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Khana consume 163 GWh/yr but want 206 GWh/yr. The 21% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Khana

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Khana actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 73,733 buildings with a modelled result out of 74,010 in Khana. 62,317 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years41,044 (56%)

Under 5 years54,349 (74%)

Under 7 years62,207 (84%)

Under 10 years67,352 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%66,131 (89%)

Above 15%62,317 (84%)

Above 20%56,656 (77%)

Above 25%42,264 (57%)

CO₂ avoided

211 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

75.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

43.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

380k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Khana.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Khana

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	29,603	17,525	₦57.6bn	₦54.1bn	55%	1.9 yr
E	28,801	15,968	₦58.4bn	₦54.9bn	63%	1.6 yr
C	15,606	8,668	₦20.7bn	₦20.5bn	35%	3.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	72,870	41,212	₦121bn	₦115bn	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	405	350	₦11.3bn	₦10.8bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	287	248	₦3.18bn	₦3.13bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	228	200	₦306m	₦306m	61%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	89	63	₦64.9m	₦64.9m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	83	54	₦18.8m	₦18.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	41	29	₦415m	₦306m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	6	4	₦16.4m	₦16.3m	67%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦6.57m	₦5.1m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	19,853	12,589	₦51bn	₦48.7bn	57%	1.9 yr
50 100m2	19,440	10,538	₦12.3bn	₦10.6bn	51%	2.1 yr
Under 30m2	15,753	8,139	₦1.23bn	₦1.22bn	35%	2.9 yr
30 50m2	12,923	6,532	₦2.26bn	₦2.22bn	33%	3.1 yr
250 1000m2	5,933	4,276	₦59.3bn	₦56.2bn	57%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	108	87	₦10.7bn	₦10.5bn	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	32,698	17,957	₦50.1bn	₦47.9bn	51%	2.1 yr
Urban	25,690	15,671	₦54bn	₦52.1bn	63%	1.6 yr
Urban Centre	8,752	6,536	₦16.6bn	₦16.4bn	47%	2.4 yr
Unclassified	3,972	1,142	₦12.3bn	₦9.34bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	2,898	855	₦3.65bn	₦3.65bn	23%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	26,540	14,985	₦17.6bn	₦15.9bn	55%	1.9 yr
Shed	20,111	10,000	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	18,094	11,851	₦96.7bn	₦91.8bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Informal	5,761	3,041	₦3.26bn	₦3.26bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,120	1,151	₦2.09bn	₦2.09bn	43%	2.6 yr
Apartment	194	150	₦250m	₦250m	53%	1.9 yr
Institutional	193	177	₦6.64bn	₦6.51bn	53%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	176	154	₦219m	₦219m	63%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	167	112	₦79.3m	₦79.3m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	138	128	₦2.59bn	₦2.59bn	71%	1.4 yr
School	120	104	₦2.2bn	₦2.2bn	67%	1.6 yr
Clinic	85	61	₦1.2bn	₦946m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	73,930	42,086	₦136bn	₦129bn
Industrial	78	75	₦652m	₦452m
Farmyard	2	0	₦6.54k	₦6.54k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	73,496	41,720	₦124bn	₦118bn	53%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	355	319	₦11.1bn	₦10.6bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	159	122	₦1.24bn	₦1.21bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	33,042	20,787	₦115bn	₦110bn
0.0	20,039	9,932	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn
2.0	13,284	7,092	₦10.9bn	₦9.5bn
4.0	5,136	3,094	₦7.84bn	₦7.71bn
1.0	2,504	1,252	₦950m	₦843m
5.0	5	4	₦178m	₦178m