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    Rivers State

    Rooftop solar in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

    Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni has 74,401 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.87 GWp of roof capacity. 52% run a generator, and together they spend ₦98.9bn a year on energy.

    Viable buildings

    74,401

    Usable roof area

    8.3 km²

    1.87 GWp roof capacity

    Energy spend

    ₦98.9bn/yr

    74.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

    Median payback

    4.1 yr

    Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

    The savings bracket for Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni

    Approach B

    Cash saved

    What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

    Current energy spend₦98.9bn/yr
    Year-one cash saved₦93.6bn
    Lifetime cash saved₦4.81tn
    NPV₦664bn
    Median IRR27%
    Median payback4.1 yr
    Unlocked energy45.5 GWh/yr
    Approach A

    Energy value (upper bracket)

    What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

    Installed capacity258 MWp
    Capex₦266bn
    Year-one energy value₦153bn
    Lifetime energy value₦7.13tn
    NPV₦1.11tn
    Median IRR57%
    Median payback1.9 yr

    Three ways to size Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni's rooftops

    Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

    Baseline: mixed
    Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

    Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

    System size
    258 MWp
    Capital cost
    ₦266bn
    Year 1 savings
    ₦153bn/yr
    NPV
    ₦1.11tn
    Median IRR
    57%
    Median payback
    1.9 yr

    The odds a rooftop in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni pays back quickly

    Of the 74,158 buildings in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni with a modelled payback, 83.7% pay back inside five years and 35.9% inside three.

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    How much of Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni's demand actually gets met

    Buildings in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni consume 187 GWh/yr but want 233 GWh/yr. The 20% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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    Electricity billing bands in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni

    Loading band economics…

    How many rooftops in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni actually pay

    Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 74,158 buildings with a modelled result out of 74,401 in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni. 68,183 clear a positive NPV.

    Payback

    Under 3 years26,595 (36%)
    Under 5 years62,083 (84%)
    Under 7 years68,128 (92%)
    Under 10 years70,970 (96%)

    Return (IRR)

    Above 10%70,594 (95%)
    Above 15%68,183 (92%)
    Above 20%64,037 (86%)
    Above 25%48,312 (65%)
    CO₂ avoided

    167 kt/yr

    Fuel avoided

    43.4 million litres/yr

    Energy unlocked

    45.5 GWh/yr

    Demand that is suppressed today

    People served

    396k

    What hardware costs right now

    Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni.

    Solar panels

    ₦250

    ₦/W

    Inverters

    ₦127,419

    ₦/kVA

    Batteries

    ₦177,500

    ₦/kWh

    Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

    Building mix in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni

    Electricity billing band

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    A50,99526,562₦58.8bn₦57.6bn25%4.1 yr
    B15,9779,551₦25.9bn₦25.3bn39%2.9 yr
    C2,8891,347₦3.32bn₦3.3bn25%4.4 yr
    D2,432399₦5.2bn₦3.5bn23%4.6 yr
    E2,108506₦5.68bn₦3.94bn21%4.6 yr

    Load profile

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Residential73,39037,720₦82.2bn₦78bn25%4.1 yr
    Anchor459308₦12bn₦11.2bn47%2.4 yr
    Commercial General357232₦3.61bn₦3.48bn37%2.9 yr
    Industrial7243₦656m₦621m37%2.9 yr
    Worship5530₦97m₦97m37%2.9 yr
    Commercial Retail3521₦15.8m₦15.8m35%3.1 yr
    Hospitality267₦291m₦243m33%3.1 yr
    Filling Station31₦5.32m₦5.32m33%3.1 yr
    Mall Retail22₦6.16m₦6.16m33%3.4 yr
    Productive Use21₦894k₦894k33%2.6 yr

    Roof size band

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    100 250m225,11313,699₦33bn₦31.5bn29%3.9 yr
    Under 30m215,6227,266₦846m₦842m23%4.9 yr
    50 100m214,0727,112₦4.77bn₦4.62bn25%4.4 yr
    250 1000m210,7306,019₦46.1bn₦43.3bn31%3.6 yr
    30 50m28,6964,161₦1.08bn₦1.05bn25%4.4 yr
    Over 1000m2168108₦13.1bn₦12.3bn41%2.6 yr

    Settlement type

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Urban Centre48,28225,353₦47bn₦46.1bn25%4.1 yr
    Urban8,5214,929₦20.2bn₦19.8bn35%3.1 yr
    Unclassified7,6641,456₦8.88bn₦6.81bn23%4.6 yr
    Dense Urban7,3886,144₦20.5bn₦18.6bn41%2.6 yr
    Rural2,546483₦2.31bn₦2.24bn25%4.4 yr

    Building type

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Residential Formal17,4708,058₦6.82bn₦6.82bn25%4.4 yr
    Residential15,99810,172₦62bn₦57.9bn37%2.9 yr
    Shed13,8496,416₦726m₦726m23%4.6 yr
    Residential Small13,1027,788₦6.69bn₦6.52bn33%3.4 yr
    Residential Informal9,4993,796₦4.92bn₦4.92bn25%4.4 yr
    Apartment2,8501,203₦890m₦890m25%4.4 yr
    Duplex620286₦173m₦173m25%4.4 yr
    Institutional272188₦9.56bn₦9.07bn39%2.9 yr
    Educational Facility169110₦1.38bn₦1.38bn51%2.1 yr
    School13991₦701m₦701m51%2.1 yr
    Commercial10265₦1.96bn₦1.84bn39%2.9 yr
    Healthcare Facility5437₦1.21bn₦1.01bn41%2.4 yr

    Land use

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B)
    (Unset)72,34337,192₦92.2bn₦87bn
    Industrial1,9301,117₦6.62bn₦6.56bn
    Commercial12654₦44.3m₦44.3m
    Farmland22₦3.48m₦3.48m

    Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

    Lead segment

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B) Median IRR Median payback
    Standard73,78437,959₦84.2bn₦79.9bn25%4.1 yr
    Enterprise501336₦12.6bn₦11.8bn47%2.4 yr
    SME High11670₦2.11bn₦1.97bn37%2.9 yr

    Demand tier

    SegmentBuildings With generator Spend ₦/yr Cash saved yr 1 (B)
    3.026,42616,382₦77.2bn₦72.4bn
    4.025,56511,125₦14.8bn₦14.6bn
    0.013,5556,238₦716m₦716m
    2.07,1143,898₦4.78bn₦4.62bn
    1.01,726715₦402m₦392m
    5.0136₦919m₦806m
    6.021₦124m₦102m

    Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

    Nearby LGAs in Rivers

    Obio/Akpor383,741 buildingsEtche111,589 buildingsIkwerre109,746 buildingsPort-Harcourt107,484 buildingsKhana74,010 buildingsOyigbo71,921 buildingsEleme71,192 buildingsEmuoha59,611 buildingsAhoada East51,858 buildingsOkrika36,081 buildingsGokana34,269 buildingsTai23,476 buildings