Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Obio/Akpor, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Obio/Akpor has 383,741 buildings with a viable rooftop and 10.9 GWp of roof capacity. 32% run a generator, and together they spend ₦136bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

383,741

Usable roof area

48.6 km²

10.9 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦136bn/yr

77 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Obio/Akpor

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦136bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦135bn

Lifetime cash saved₦7.72tn

NPV₦963bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy199 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity776 MWp

Capex₦706bn

Year-one energy value₦333bn

Lifetime energy value₦15.2tn

NPV₦2.25tn

Median IRR53%

Median payback2.1 yr

Three ways to size Obio/Akpor's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 776 MWp
Capital cost: ₦706bn
Year 1 savings: ₦333bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.25tn
Median IRR: 53%
Median payback: 2.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Obio/Akpor pays back quickly

Of the 376,380 buildings in Obio/Akpor with a modelled payback, 62.0% pay back inside five years and 11.4% inside three.

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How much of Obio/Akpor's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Obio/Akpor consume 410 GWh/yr but want 610 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Obio/Akpor

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Obio/Akpor actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 376,380 buildings with a modelled result out of 383,741 in Obio/Akpor. 306,770 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years42,810 (11%)

Under 5 years233,326 (62%)

Under 7 years305,730 (81%)

Under 10 years345,205 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%341,160 (89%)

Above 15%306,770 (80%)

Above 20%256,972 (67%)

Above 25%108,693 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

315 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

36.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

199 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

429k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Obio/Akpor.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Obio/Akpor

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	296,705	86,729	₦94.5bn	₦93.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	86,829	34,566	₦40.5bn	₦40.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	207	143	₦944m	₦890m	55%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	371,803	117,536	₦56.2bn	₦56bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	5,767	1,886	₦28.4bn	₦28.2bn	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	1,887	568	₦41.7bn	₦40.9bn	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,513	675	₦378m	₦378m	33%	3.4 yr
Worship	1,348	415	₦928m	₦928m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	788	182	₦5.93bn	₦5.68bn	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	191	55	₦1.46bn	₦1.45bn	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	174	34	₦547m	₦535m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	143	40	₦250m	₦250m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	107	41	₦191m	₦191m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	20	6	₦28.6m	₦28.6m	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	132,818	42,025	₦25.9bn	₦25.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	71,398	21,392	₦3.78bn	₦3.78bn	19%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	67,206	21,808	₦49.7bn	₦49.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	64,462	21,043	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	13%	6.6 yr
30 50m2	46,254	14,607	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	17%	6.1 yr
Over 1000m2	1,603	563	₦53.8bn	₦52.9bn	31%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	370,199	118,443	₦126bn	₦125bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	13,147	2,800	₦8.91bn	₦8.82bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	395	195	₦664m	₦612m	33%	3.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	192,337	44,504	₦19.2bn	₦19.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	116,453	45,256	₦13.8bn	₦13.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	28,498	10,041	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential	16,637	9,231	₦19.7bn	₦19.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	14,352	7,136	₦1.84bn	₦1.84bn	23%	4.6 yr
Apartment	2,861	1,094	₦300m	₦300m	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,006	801	₦10.4bn	₦10.3bn	33%	3.1 yr
Unknown	1,564	430	₦4.71bn	₦4.69bn	29%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,529	681	₦346m	₦346m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	1,054	305	₦5.45bn	₦5.44bn	33%	3.1 yr
Institutional	721	227	₦35.1bn	₦34.6bn	31%	3.4 yr
Duplex	665	274	₦70m	₦70m	23%	4.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	375,634	118,306	₦108bn	₦107bn
Industrial	7,557	2,958	₦27.1bn	₦26.6bn
Commercial	325	115	₦397m	₦397m
Farmland	115	28	₦14.4m	₦14.4m
Retail	91	25	₦324m	₦324m
Farmyard	19	6	₦1.23m	₦1.23m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	378,676	119,768	₦77.6bn	₦77.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	3,129	1,090	₦15.7bn	₦15.5bn	33%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	1,936	580	₦42.7bn	₦41.9bn	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	142,612	48,887	₦67.5bn	₦67bn
3.0	113,920	35,432	₦43bn	₦42.5bn
2.0	85,269	23,183	₦4.9bn	₦4.89bn
0.0	20,678	8,321	₦979m	₦979m
1.0	19,245	5,045	₦398m	₦398m
5.0	1,386	397	₦8.39bn	₦8.24bn
6.0	631	173	₦10.8bn	₦10.6bn