Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Ahoada East, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Ahoada East has 51,858 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.11 GWp of roof capacity. 40% run a generator, and together they spend ₦45.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

51,858

Usable roof area

4.96 km²

1.11 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦45.6bn/yr

39.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ahoada East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦45.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦44.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.35tn

NPV₦349bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy31.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity152 MWp

Capex₦154bn

Year-one energy value₦120bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.68tn

NPV₦938bn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ahoada East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 152 MWp
Capital cost: ₦154bn
Year 1 savings: ₦120bn/yr
NPV: ₦938bn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ahoada East pays back quickly

Of the 51,587 buildings in Ahoada East with a modelled payback, 69.8% pay back inside five years and 39.0% inside three.

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How much of Ahoada East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ahoada East consume 70.4 GWh/yr but want 102 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ahoada East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ahoada East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 51,587 buildings with a modelled result out of 51,858 in Ahoada East. 43,667 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years20,124 (39%)

Under 5 years36,033 (70%)

Under 7 years43,582 (84%)

Under 10 years47,090 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%46,385 (89%)

Above 15%43,667 (84%)

Above 20%38,003 (73%)

Above 25%22,321 (43%)

CO₂ avoided

80.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

23 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

31.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

277k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ahoada East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ahoada East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	19,656	9,664	₦18.8bn	₦18.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	14,005	5,726	₦14.7bn	₦14.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	11,768	2,914	₦7.15bn	₦6.75bn	23%	4.9 yr
B	5,557	2,388	₦3.7bn	₦3.69bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	872	269	₦1.19bn	₦1.18bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	50,646	20,036	₦36.9bn	₦36.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Worship	489	365	₦895m	₦895m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	319	257	₦2.35bn	₦2.35bn	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	305	227	₦5.21bn	₦4.99bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	47	44	₦11.6m	₦11.6m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	36	24	₦89.7m	₦89m	53%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	11	4	₦55.9m	₦55.9m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	4	4	₦18m	₦18m	49%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦67.2k	₦67.2k	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	15,437	6,865	₦15.5bn	₦15.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	12,694	4,583	₦2.86bn	₦2.86bn	25%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	10,550	3,905	₦483m	₦480m	17%	6.4 yr
30 50m2	7,691	2,650	₦648m	₦647m	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	5,400	2,909	₦21.2bn	₦20.5bn	41%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	86	49	₦4.93bn	₦4.74bn	47%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	18,621	7,683	₦13.2bn	₦13bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban Centre	16,480	8,518	₦16.4bn	₦16.4bn	35%	3.1 yr
Urban	12,908	4,180	₦13.9bn	₦13.1bn	25%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	3,502	516	₦1.74bn	₦1.74bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	347	64	₦258m	₦258m	21%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	17,037	6,495	₦4.13bn	₦4.12bn	25%	4.6 yr
Residential	14,039	6,289	₦29.3bn	₦28.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	11,389	3,844	₦458m	₦458m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Formal	4,368	2,392	₦2.28bn	₦2.28bn	33%	3.1 yr
Residential Informal	2,864	390	₦443m	₦443m	23%	4.6 yr
Apartment	910	607	₦346m	₦346m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	334	251	₦3.77bn	₦3.77bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	169	127	₦128m	₦128m	57%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	161	121	₦112m	₦112m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	111	89	₦2.07bn	₦2.07bn	69%	1.6 yr
School	88	63	₦414m	₦414m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial	78	78	₦536m	₦536m	53%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	51,457	20,883	₦45.3bn	₦44.2bn
Industrial	398	78	₦332m	₦332m
Orchard	3	0	₦7.97k	₦7.97k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	51,435	20,631	₦39.7bn	₦38.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	323	239	₦5.25bn	₦5.02bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	100	91	₦672m	₦672m	53%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	23,905	10,369	₦36.8bn	₦35.8bn
0.0	11,373	3,846	₦458m	₦458m
2.0	7,761	2,853	₦2.97bn	₦2.92bn
4.0	7,058	3,291	₦4.99bn	₦4.98bn
1.0	1,753	601	₦306m	₦305m
5.0	5	1	₦57.6m	₦57.6m
6.0	3	0	₦33.3m	₦33.3m