Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Etche, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Etche has 111,589 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.36 GWp of roof capacity. 38% run a generator, and together they spend ₦59.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

111,589

Usable roof area

10.5 km²

2.36 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦59.1bn/yr

49.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Etche

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦59.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦57.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.06tn

NPV₦435bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy41.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity211 MWp

Capex₦219bn

Year-one energy value₦154bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.27tn

NPV₦1.18tn

Median IRR75%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Etche's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 211 MWp
Capital cost: ₦219bn
Year 1 savings: ₦154bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.18tn
Median IRR: 75%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Etche pays back quickly

Of the 110,996 buildings in Etche with a modelled payback, 67.9% pay back inside five years and 29.1% inside three.

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How much of Etche's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Etche consume 102 GWh/yr but want 143 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Etche

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Etche actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 110,996 buildings with a modelled result out of 111,589 in Etche. 91,426 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years32,264 (29%)

Under 5 years75,312 (68%)

Under 7 years91,210 (82%)

Under 10 years100,257 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%98,682 (88%)

Above 15%91,426 (82%)

Above 20%80,415 (72%)

Above 25%41,379 (37%)

CO₂ avoided

107 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

28.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

41.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

366k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Etche.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Etche

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	37,454	19,015	₦21.4bn	₦21bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	28,326	7,986	₦16.8bn	₦16.2bn	23%	4.9 yr
A	26,218	9,775	₦10.9bn	₦10.9bn	25%	4.6 yr
D	15,514	3,701	₦6.84bn	₦6.68bn	23%	4.9 yr
C	4,077	1,657	₦3.23bn	₦3.2bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	110,940	41,677	₦47.1bn	₦46.5bn	25%	4.6 yr
Anchor	361	279	₦10.2bn	₦9.62bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	237	154	₦1.67bn	₦1.63bn	43%	2.4 yr
Industrial	19	11	₦137m	₦137m	39%	2.9 yr
Worship	19	7	₦11.2m	₦11.2m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	7	1	₦12.1m	₦12.1m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Retail	2	2	₦558k	₦558k	53%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	2	1	₦1.32m	₦1.32m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦1.66m	₦1.66m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦2.33m	₦2.33m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	40,360	16,491	₦22.5bn	₦22.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	26,039	9,416	₦4bn	₦3.85bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	21,673	7,232	₦694m	₦694m	15%	6.9 yr
30 50m2	14,275	5,054	₦890m	₦887m	19%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	9,060	3,815	₦20.1bn	₦19.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	182	126	₦10.9bn	₦10.6bn	47%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	47,830	21,248	₦20bn	₦20bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	25,931	7,903	₦18bn	₦17.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	24,194	11,412	₦14bn	₦13.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	7,275	662	₦2.25bn	₦2.09bn	17%	6.4 yr
Unclassified	6,359	909	₦4.88bn	₦4.69bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	28,045	9,974	₦5.09bn	₦4.94bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	25,010	10,439	₦7.21bn	₦7.21bn	25%	4.6 yr
Residential	24,546	9,885	₦31.5bn	₦31bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	22,767	7,276	₦835m	₦835m	15%	6.9 yr
Residential Informal	4,934	1,616	₦958m	₦958m	25%	4.6 yr
Duplex	3,268	1,430	₦921m	₦921m	25%	4.6 yr
Apartment	2,367	1,056	₦601m	₦601m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	217	168	₦8.46bn	₦8.13bn	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	129	100	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	77%	1.4 yr
School	95	70	₦411m	₦411m	61%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	48	37	₦796m	₦642m	51%	2.1 yr
Clinic	40	30	₦470m	₦326m	43%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	111,488	42,113	₦59.1bn	₦57.8bn
Industrial	66	21	₦66.3m	₦65.5m
Orchard	35	0	₦33.1k	₦33.1k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	111,192	41,833	₦48.7bn	₦48bn	25%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	378	290	₦10.3bn	₦9.76bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	19	11	₦102m	₦102m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	37,031	15,243	₦42.6bn	₦41.5bn
4.0	27,574	11,748	₦10.2bn	₦10.1bn
0.0	22,763	7,275	₦836m	₦836m
2.0	20,987	7,083	₦4.92bn	₦4.91bn
1.0	3,231	784	₦553m	₦401m
5.0	2	1	₦83.2m	₦83.2m
6.0	1	0	₦3.13m	₦3.13m