Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Abua/Odual, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Abua/Odual has 19,414 buildings with a viable rooftop and 445 MWp of roof capacity. 53% run a generator, and together they spend ₦78.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

19,414

Usable roof area

1.98 km²

445 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦78.4bn/yr

63.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.9 yr

Median IRR 37% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Abua/Odual

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦78.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦72.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.68tn

NPV₦561bn

Median IRR37%

Median payback2.9 yr

Unlocked energy35.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity182 MWp

Capex₦188bn

Year-one energy value₦149bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.9tn

NPV₦1.15tn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Abua/Odual's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 182 MWp
Capital cost: ₦188bn
Year 1 savings: ₦149bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.15tn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Abua/Odual pays back quickly

Of the 19,248 buildings in Abua/Odual with a modelled payback, 85.9% pay back inside five years and 51.4% inside three.

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How much of Abua/Odual's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Abua/Odual consume 112 GWh/yr but want 147 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Abua/Odual

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Abua/Odual actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 19,248 buildings with a modelled result out of 19,414 in Abua/Odual. 17,863 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,884 (51%)

Under 5 years16,532 (86%)

Under 7 years17,855 (93%)

Under 10 years18,177 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%18,106 (93%)

Above 15%17,863 (92%)

Above 20%16,774 (86%)

Above 25%10,660 (55%)

CO₂ avoided

126 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

39.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

35.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

433k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Abua/Odual.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Abua/Odual

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	8,389	5,007	₦31.9bn	₦30.2bn	41%	2.6 yr
D	4,599	1,970	₦18.8bn	₦17.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	3,926	1,892	₦18.4bn	₦15.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	1,879	885	₦6.31bn	₦5.74bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	621	485	₦2.98bn	₦2.78bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	18,999	9,885	₦73.3bn	₦67.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	217	196	₦3.52bn	₦3.37bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	103	93	₦1.39bn	₦1.37bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	36	29	₦41.1m	₦41.1m	61%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	29	17	₦76.5m	₦76.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	22	13	₦12m	₦12m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	6	4	₦18.6m	₦18.6m	47%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦6.01m	₦6.01m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	6,661	3,719	₦31.7bn	₦29.9bn	41%	2.6 yr
Under 30m2	4,036	1,989	₦490m	₦488m	23%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	4,016	2,020	₦4.59bn	₦4.49bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	2,505	1,207	₦828m	₦810m	25%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,164	1,275	₦36.7bn	₦32.7bn	45%	2.4 yr
Over 1000m2	32	29	₦4.06bn	₦3.99bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	6,858	4,706	₦38.2bn	₦35.2bn	55%	1.9 yr
Urban Centre	6,383	3,582	₦17.6bn	₦17.3bn	39%	2.6 yr
Rural	3,230	1,518	₦13.6bn	₦12.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	2,943	433	₦8.89bn	₦6.98bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	6,158	3,247	₦8.4bn	₦8.22bn	45%	2.4 yr
Residential	5,589	2,938	₦60.2bn	₦54.5bn	53%	2.1 yr
Shed	4,064	1,772	₦218m	₦218m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,001	890	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,184	1,037	₦2.92bn	₦2.92bn	41%	2.6 yr
Institutional	106	95	₦1.98bn	₦1.96bn	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	77	69	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	69%	1.6 yr
School	56	54	₦361m	₦361m	67%	1.6 yr
Clinic	44	36	₦316m	₦286m	47%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	34	27	₦40.5m	₦40.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	32	30	₦529m	₦463m	49%	2.1 yr
Restaurant	28	17	₦76.3m	₦76.3m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	19,344	10,239	₦78.3bn	₦72.3bn
Industrial	70	0	₦50.9m	₦37.7m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	19,188	10,037	₦74.8bn	₦69bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	205	189	₦3.46bn	₦3.31bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	21	13	₦83.6m	₦83.6m	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	6,679	3,743	₦12.4bn	₦12.1bn
3.0	5,694	3,283	₦62.3bn	₦56.7bn
0.0	4,067	1,773	₦218m	₦218m
4.0	1,593	732	₦2.71bn	₦2.65bn
1.0	1,381	708	₦711m	₦680m