Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Opobo/Nkoro, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Opobo/Nkoro has 5,539 buildings with a viable rooftop and 119 MWp of roof capacity. 60% run a generator, and together they spend ₦66.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

5,539

Usable roof area

528,790 m²

119 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦66.8bn/yr

58.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.9 yr

Median IRR 55% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Opobo/Nkoro

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦66.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦45.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.08tn

NPV₦349bn

Median IRR55%

Median payback1.9 yr

Unlocked energy5.69 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity62.7 MWp

Capex₦64.4bn

Year-one energy value₦56.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.51tn

NPV₦429bn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Opobo/Nkoro's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 62.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦64.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦56.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦429bn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Opobo/Nkoro pays back quickly

Of the 5,534 buildings in Opobo/Nkoro with a modelled payback, 89.4% pay back inside five years and 59.2% inside three.

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How much of Opobo/Nkoro's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Opobo/Nkoro consume 75.5 GWh/yr but want 81.2 GWh/yr. The 7% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Opobo/Nkoro

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Opobo/Nkoro actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 5,534 buildings with a modelled result out of 5,539 in Opobo/Nkoro. 5,183 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,277 (59%)

Under 5 years4,948 (89%)

Under 7 years5,181 (94%)

Under 10 years5,310 (96%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%5,273 (95%)

Above 15%5,183 (94%)

Above 20%5,026 (91%)

Above 25%3,346 (60%)

CO₂ avoided

70.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

27.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.69 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

129k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Opobo/Nkoro.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Opobo/Nkoro

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	3,628	2,283	₦29.5bn	₦21.6bn	55%	1.9 yr
E	997	485	₦20bn	₦12.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	914	551	₦17.3bn	₦11.8bn	59%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	5,427	3,218	₦64.1bn	₦43bn	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	74	67	₦2.26bn	₦2.1bn	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	36	32	₦366m	₦362m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	2	2	₦665k	₦665k	45%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	1,670	1,012	₦25.8bn	₦18.5bn	57%	1.9 yr
50 100m2	1,414	810	₦5.36bn	₦4.41bn	57%	1.9 yr
Under 30m2	1,049	636	₦162m	₦153m	55%	1.9 yr
30 50m2	887	501	₦607m	₦535m	53%	2.1 yr
250 1000m2	506	348	₦33bn	₦20.1bn	59%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	13	12	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	2,620	2,223	₦48.4bn	₦33.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
Dense Urban	1,657	745	₦8.88bn	₦5.36bn	25%	4.6 yr
Rural	820	207	₦4.13bn	₦3.61bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	442	144	₦5.33bn	₦2.95bn	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	1,568	1,169	₦8.14bn	₦6.8bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Formal	1,297	184	₦221m	₦221m	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	1,290	884	₦177m	₦177m	55%	1.9 yr
Residential	1,272	981	₦55.6bn	₦35.8bn	63%	1.6 yr
Institutional	36	32	₦767m	₦763m	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	29	26	₦458m	₦458m	73%	1.4 yr
School	27	23	₦852m	₦852m	69%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	8	8	₦331m	₦206m	53%	1.9 yr
Clinic	7	7	₦150m	₦117m	51%	2.1 yr
Mini-Grid	2	2	₦665k	₦665k	45%	1.9 yr
Commercial	2	2	₦61.2m	₦61.2m	63%	1.4 yr
Hospital	1	1	₦3.06m	₦3.06m	53%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	5,539	3,319	₦66.8bn	₦45.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	5,461	3,248	₦64.4bn	₦43.3bn	55%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	76	69	₦2.26bn	₦2.1bn	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	2	2	₦61.2m	₦61.2m	63%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	1,577	1,225	₦14.9bn	₦10.5bn
0.0	1,290	884	₦177m	₦177m
3.0	1,280	904	₦49.7bn	₦33.3bn
4.0	1,010	152	₦354m	₦354m
1.0	382	154	₦1.64bn	₦1.09bn