Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Akuku Toru, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Akuku Toru has 17,707 buildings with a viable rooftop and 303 MWp of roof capacity. 48% run a generator, and together they spend ₦196bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

17,707

Usable roof area

1.35 km²

303 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦196bn/yr

161 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Akuku Toru

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦196bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦108bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.98tn

NPV₦810bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy17 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity170 MWp

Capex₦177bn

Year-one energy value₦137bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.13tn

NPV₦1.03tn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Akuku Toru's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 170 MWp
Capital cost: ₦177bn
Year 1 savings: ₦137bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.03tn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Akuku Toru pays back quickly

Of the 17,533 buildings in Akuku Toru with a modelled payback, 71.7% pay back inside five years and 47.9% inside three.

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How much of Akuku Toru's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Akuku Toru consume 251 GWh/yr but want 268 GWh/yr. The 6% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Akuku Toru

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Akuku Toru actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 17,533 buildings with a modelled result out of 17,707 in Akuku Toru. 13,629 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,392 (48%)

Under 5 years12,577 (72%)

Under 7 years13,616 (78%)

Under 10 years14,338 (82%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%14,126 (80%)

Above 15%13,629 (77%)

Above 20%12,681 (72%)

Above 25%8,553 (48%)

CO₂ avoided

170 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

62.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

722k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Akuku Toru.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Akuku Toru

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	5,733	4,068	₦97.9bn	₦57.2bn	57%	1.9 yr
B	4,630	3,733	₦65bn	₦39.5bn	55%	1.9 yr
E	4,462	97	₦16.9bn	₦3.37bn	9%	13.4 yr
D	1,974	388	₦8.94bn	₦2.71bn	23%	4.6 yr
A	908	228	₦6.7bn	₦4.91bn	25%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	17,462	8,285	₦190bn	₦103bn	25%	4.4 yr
Anchor	148	138	₦4.3bn	₦4.06bn	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	78	72	₦693m	₦693m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	16	16	₦69.4m	₦69.4m	53%	2.1 yr
Industrial	3	3	₦69.5m	₦63.9m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	4,860	1,645	₦1.53bn	₦1.04bn	15%	6.9 yr
50 100m2	4,034	1,882	₦14.8bn	₦9.87bn	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	3,933	2,770	₦73.4bn	₦41.2bn	55%	1.9 yr
30 50m2	3,583	1,208	₦3.23bn	₦2.15bn	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,269	982	₦95bn	₦47.3bn	59%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	28	27	₦7.59bn	₦6.16bn	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	7,118	516	₦18.2bn	₦11.2bn	11%	8.9 yr
Dense Urban	7,065	6,110	₦80.5bn	₦66.5bn	55%	1.9 yr
Rural	2,557	1,303	₦82.7bn	₦22.8bn	33%	3.4 yr
Urban	967	585	₦14.1bn	₦7.27bn	55%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	6,304	1,402	₦230m	₦230m	9%	9.9 yr
Residential Small	6,222	3,172	₦24.5bn	₦15.6bn	51%	2.1 yr
Residential	3,769	2,544	₦156bn	₦78.1bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Formal	1,045	1,045	₦8.41bn	₦7.6bn	49%	2.1 yr
Apartment	83	83	₦833m	₦792m	49%	2.1 yr
Institutional	79	74	₦2.7bn	₦2.65bn	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	59	55	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	67%	1.6 yr
School	53	49	₦197m	₦197m	65%	1.6 yr
Duplex	38	38	₦514m	₦482m	51%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	13	12	₦332m	₦262m	69%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	12	12	₦65.5m	₦65.5m	53%	2.1 yr
Clinic	9	8	₦248m	₦213m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	17,283	8,292	₦190bn	₦103bn
Industrial	424	222	₦5.44bn	₦4.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	17,556	8,373	₦191bn	₦104bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	151	141	₦4.37bn	₦4.12bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	6,305	1,403	₦230m	₦230m
3.0	5,636	4,298	₦169bn	₦88.8bn
2.0	2,802	1,467	₦14.6bn	₦8.64bn
1.0	1,873	255	₦1.65bn	₦1.12bn
4.0	1,091	1,091	₦9.79bn	₦8.92bn