Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Ogu Bolo, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Ogu Bolo has 11,013 buildings with a viable rooftop and 359 MWp of roof capacity. 47% run a generator, and together they spend ₦101bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

11,013

Usable roof area

1.59 km²

359 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦101bn/yr

77.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ogu Bolo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦101bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦67.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.28tn

NPV₦487bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy35.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity180 MWp

Capex₦175bn

Year-one energy value₦94.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.25tn

NPV₦656bn

Median IRR55%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Ogu Bolo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 180 MWp
Capital cost: ₦175bn
Year 1 savings: ₦94.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦656bn
Median IRR: 55%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ogu Bolo pays back quickly

Of the 10,935 buildings in Ogu Bolo with a modelled payback, 82.5% pay back inside five years and 37.3% inside three.

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How much of Ogu Bolo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ogu Bolo consume 176 GWh/yr but want 212 GWh/yr. The 17% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ogu Bolo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ogu Bolo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 10,935 buildings with a modelled result out of 11,013 in Ogu Bolo. 10,355 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,083 (37%)

Under 5 years9,019 (82%)

Under 7 years10,343 (95%)

Under 10 years10,585 (97%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%10,552 (96%)

Above 15%10,355 (94%)

Above 20%9,497 (86%)

Above 25%5,237 (48%)

CO₂ avoided

121 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

31.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

35.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

293k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ogu Bolo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ogu Bolo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	5,830	2,258	₦34.1bn	₦31.2bn	25%	4.6 yr
B	4,653	2,583	₦51.1bn	₦27.9bn	39%	2.9 yr
D	332	277	₦12.5bn	₦6.49bn	67%	1.6 yr
C	134	61	₦2.77bn	₦1.32bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	64	5	₦690m	₦159m	7%	13.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	10,808	5,071	₦85.1bn	₦51.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Anchor	131	72	₦15.2bn	₦14.8bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	40	20	₦208m	₦208m	33%	3.1 yr
Worship	13	11	₦121m	₦121m	45%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	12	4	₦89.5m	₦89.5m	31%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	5	2	₦431m	₦430m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	2	2	₦26.5m	₦26.4m	35%	2.6 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦657k	₦657k	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1	1	₦595k	₦595k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	2,820	1,507	₦27.1bn	₦15.8bn	33%	3.1 yr
Under 30m2	2,547	1,072	₦315m	₦275m	23%	4.9 yr
50 100m2	2,289	953	₦4.15bn	₦3.08bn	25%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	1,734	688	₦708m	₦549m	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,412	859	₦45.7bn	₦27bn	37%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	211	105	₦23.2bn	₦20.3bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	7,437	3,448	₦37.5bn	₦35.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	1,873	595	₦15.1bn	₦9.87bn	25%	4.6 yr
Urban	1,476	1,141	₦48.5bn	₦21.9bn	53%	1.9 yr
Rural	227	0	₦176m	₦149m	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	3,890	1,522	₦210m	₦210m	23%	4.9 yr
Residential	2,843	1,466	₦74bn	₦41.9bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Small	2,060	1,006	₦6.54bn	₦5.07bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,244	374	₦3.38bn	₦3.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	771	703	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	43%	2.6 yr
Institutional	108	59	₦14.4bn	₦14.2bn	33%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	17	10	₦132m	₦132m	49%	2.1 yr
School	15	9	₦181m	₦181m	51%	2.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	10	6	₦357m	₦242m	39%	2.4 yr
Clinic	8	4	₦154m	₦99.3m	27%	2.9 yr
Commercial	7	3	₦34.8m	₦34.8m	35%	3.1 yr
Restaurant	7	2	₦26.9m	₦26.9m	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	7,563	3,754	₦76.8bn	₦43.1bn
Industrial	3,369	1,384	₦23.6bn	₦23.1bn
Retail	44	44	₦461m	₦458m
Commercial	37	2	₦443m	₦443m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	10,871	5,107	₦85.6bn	₦51.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	133	74	₦15.2bn	₦14.8bn	37%	2.9 yr
SME High	9	3	₦435m	₦435m	33%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	3,782	1,436	₦198m	₦198m
3.0	3,126	1,962	₦87.6bn	₦55.1bn
2.0	2,752	985	₦5.88bn	₦4.72bn
4.0	693	612	₦6.38bn	₦6.25bn
1.0	659	188	₦733m	₦355m
5.0	1	1	₦419m	₦418m