Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Asari-Toru, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Asari-Toru has 8,750 buildings with a viable rooftop and 194 MWp of roof capacity. 53% run a generator, and together they spend ₦150bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

8,750

Usable roof area

862,415 m²

194 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦150bn/yr

124 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.1 yr

Median IRR 35% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Asari-Toru

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦150bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦78.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.59tn

NPV₦593bn

Median IRR35%

Median payback3.1 yr

Unlocked energy16.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity129 MWp

Capex₦134bn

Year-one energy value₦101bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.45tn

NPV₦747bn

Median IRR75%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Asari-Toru's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 129 MWp
Capital cost: ₦134bn
Year 1 savings: ₦101bn/yr
NPV: ₦747bn
Median IRR: 75%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Asari-Toru pays back quickly

Of the 8,722 buildings in Asari-Toru with a modelled payback, 88.4% pay back inside five years and 49.0% inside three.

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How much of Asari-Toru's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Asari-Toru consume 193 GWh/yr but want 210 GWh/yr. The 8% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Asari-Toru

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Asari-Toru actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 8,722 buildings with a modelled result out of 8,750 in Asari-Toru. 8,022 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,271 (49%)

Under 5 years7,713 (88%)

Under 7 years8,016 (92%)

Under 10 years8,196 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%8,161 (93%)

Above 15%8,022 (92%)

Above 20%7,764 (89%)

Above 25%4,886 (56%)

CO₂ avoided

127 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

45.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

406k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Asari-Toru.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Asari-Toru

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	3,346	1,495	₦22.5bn	₦17.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	2,142	1,690	₦75.2bn	₦32.5bn	57%	1.9 yr
B	1,447	814	₦14.5bn	₦11.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
D	971	539	₦33.1bn	₦14.6bn	63%	1.6 yr
E	844	115	₦4.71bn	₦2.56bn	11%	7.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	8,462	4,438	₦145bn	₦74.5bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	166	121	₦3.87bn	₦3.44bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	72	56	₦672m	₦671m	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	48	37	₦97.9m	₦97.9m	51%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦49m	₦40.5m	75%	1.4 yr
Industrial	1	0	₦1.75m	₦1.75m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	2,741	1,507	₦57.4bn	₦33.7bn	39%	2.6 yr
50 100m2	1,954	994	₦9.56bn	₦7.52bn	29%	3.6 yr
Under 30m2	1,890	918	₦695m	₦532m	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	1,271	645	₦1.48bn	₦1.14bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	857	569	₦76bn	₦32.1bn	59%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	37	20	₦4.86bn	₦3.81bn	43%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	4,911	2,688	₦59.8bn	₦36.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
Unclassified	1,433	312	₦20.4bn	₦9.76bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	1,400	1,002	₦53.7bn	₦20.2bn	55%	1.9 yr
Rural	1,006	651	₦16bn	₦12.5bn	57%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	1,813	1,239	₦118bn	₦52.7bn	63%	1.6 yr
Residential Small	1,786	1,259	₦13.7bn	₦10.4bn	57%	1.9 yr
Shed	1,780	899	₦133m	₦133m	33%	3.1 yr
Residential Formal	1,444	54	₦640m	₦633m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,337	972	₦12.5bn	₦10.5bn	43%	2.4 yr
Apartment	282	14	₦126m	₦126m	25%	4.6 yr
Institutional	86	69	₦1.8bn	₦1.76bn	47%	2.4 yr
School	67	46	₦627m	₦627m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	52	40	₦983m	₦983m	59%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	20	17	₦712m	₦436m	61%	1.6 yr
Duplex	20	1	₦8.8m	₦8.8m	25%	4.6 yr
Clinic	17	15	₦378m	₦268m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	8,750	4,653	₦150bn	₦78.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	8,583	4,532	₦146bn	₦75.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	167	121	₦3.87bn	₦3.44bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	3,321	2,369	₦131bn	₦63.8bn
4.0	2,739	834	₦13bn	₦11.2bn
0.0	1,719	839	₦121m	₦121m
2.0	747	478	₦5.55bn	₦3.53bn
1.0	224	133	₦264m	₦187m