Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Bonny, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Bonny has 19,738 buildings with a viable rooftop and 605 MWp of roof capacity. 31% run a generator, and together they spend ₦52.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

19,738

Usable roof area

2.69 km²

605 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦52.9bn/yr

32.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bonny

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦52.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦46.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.4tn

NPV₦319bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy30.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity170 MWp

Capex₦171bn

Year-one energy value₦76.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.47tn

NPV₦501bn

Median IRR39%

Median payback2.9 yr

Three ways to size Bonny's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 170 MWp
Capital cost: ₦171bn
Year 1 savings: ₦76.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦501bn
Median IRR: 39%
Median payback: 2.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bonny pays back quickly

Of the 19,723 buildings in Bonny with a modelled payback, 80.8% pay back inside five years and 14.5% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Bonny's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bonny consume 119 GWh/yr but want 149 GWh/yr. The 21% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Bonny

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bonny actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 19,723 buildings with a modelled result out of 19,738 in Bonny. 18,088 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,865 (15%)

Under 5 years15,945 (81%)

Under 7 years18,070 (92%)

Under 10 years18,636 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%18,562 (94%)

Above 15%18,088 (92%)

Above 20%16,817 (85%)

Above 25%6,308 (32%)

CO₂ avoided

90.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

19.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

30.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

275k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bonny.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bonny

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	16,118	5,278	₦42.9bn	₦39.2bn	25%	4.6 yr
B	1,589	665	₦7.8bn	₦6.35bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	1,398	26	₦1.31bn	₦478m	11%	9.1 yr
D	458	23	₦298m	₦296m	9%	13.6 yr
C	175	89	₦561m	₦494m	49%	2.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	19,550	6,010	₦46.8bn	₦40.9bn	25%	4.6 yr
Anchor	103	37	₦5.89bn	₦5.78bn	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial General	46	20	₦74.5m	₦74.5m	29%	3.6 yr
Worship	27	8	₦15.1m	₦15.1m	31%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	8	6	₦76.9m	₦69.8m	41%	2.4 yr
Industrial	2	0	₦2.33m	₦2.33m	35%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦1.18m	₦1.18m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	5,873	1,950	₦15.6bn	₦13.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	4,730	1,431	₦3.58bn	₦3.31bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	3,364	915	₦474m	₦442m	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	3,002	945	₦23.3bn	₦20.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	2,551	769	₦173m	₦173m	21%	5.4 yr
Over 1000m2	218	71	₦9.81bn	₦9.46bn	29%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	17,972	4,733	₦39.9bn	₦35.8bn	25%	4.6 yr
Urban	1,267	850	₦10bn	₦8.23bn	53%	2.1 yr
Urban Centre	498	498	₦2.88bn	₦2.84bn	45%	2.4 yr
Rural	1	0	₦6.93k	₦6.93k	17%	6.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	5,483	2,183	₦35.8bn	₦30.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	5,274	1,246	₦7.34bn	₦6.77bn	25%	4.6 yr
Shed	5,211	1,398	₦201m	₦201m	21%	5.4 yr
Residential Small	3,582	1,183	₦3.47bn	₦3.2bn	25%	4.6 yr
Institutional	115	34	₦5.5bn	₦5.39bn	31%	3.4 yr
School	19	11	₦23.6m	₦23.6m	43%	2.6 yr
Place Of Worship	15	3	₦3.51m	₦3.51m	31%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	6	4	₦18.5m	₦18.5m	43%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	6	5	₦130m	₦130m	45%	2.1 yr
Clinic	6	4	₦47.1m	₦41.6m	45%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	4	3	₦4.16m	₦4.16m	37%	2.6 yr
Hotel	3	2	₦11.9m	₦11.9m	37%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	18,396	5,785	₦42.2bn	₦36.7bn
Industrial	1,342	296	₦10.7bn	₦10.1bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	19,628	6,043	₦47bn	₦41bn	25%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	104	36	₦5.89bn	₦5.78bn	31%	3.4 yr
SME High	6	2	₦13.7m	₦13.6m	33%	3.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	6,676	2,549	₦38.6bn	₦33.8bn
0.0	5,188	1,397	₦200m	₦200m
2.0	3,863	1,075	₦6.31bn	₦5.59bn
4.0	2,795	741	₦6.69bn	₦6.33bn
1.0	1,214	319	₦1.06bn	₦932m
5.0	1	0	₦3.68m	₦3.68m
6.0	1	0	₦16.1m	₦16.1m