Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Andoni, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Andoni has 20,975 buildings with a viable rooftop and 415 MWp of roof capacity. 65% run a generator, and together they spend ₦231bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

20,975

Usable roof area

1.85 km²

415 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦231bn/yr

199 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.9 yr

Median IRR 55% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Andoni

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦231bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦170bn

Lifetime cash saved₦8.01tn

NPV₦1.31tn

Median IRR55%

Median payback1.9 yr

Unlocked energy27.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity244 MWp

Capex₦254bn

Year-one energy value₦217bn

Lifetime energy value₦9.8tn

NPV₦1.66tn

Median IRR89%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Andoni's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 244 MWp
Capital cost: ₦254bn
Year 1 savings: ₦217bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.66tn
Median IRR: 89%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Andoni pays back quickly

Of the 20,927 buildings in Andoni with a modelled payback, 83.0% pay back inside five years and 64.6% inside three.

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How much of Andoni's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Andoni consume 265 GWh/yr but want 293 GWh/yr. The 9% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Andoni

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Andoni actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 20,927 buildings with a modelled result out of 20,975 in Andoni. 18,368 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,521 (65%)

Under 5 years17,363 (83%)

Under 7 years18,355 (88%)

Under 10 years18,917 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%18,731 (89%)

Above 15%18,368 (88%)

Above 20%17,640 (84%)

Above 25%13,938 (66%)

CO₂ avoided

267 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

102 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

27.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

517k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Andoni.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Andoni

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	6,590	5,278	₦74.4bn	₦58.2bn	55%	1.9 yr
E	6,441	3,583	₦76.9bn	₦50.1bn	65%	1.6 yr
D	4,963	3,170	₦53.9bn	₦43.5bn	59%	1.9 yr
B	2,022	1,495	₦24.7bn	₦17.4bn	55%	1.9 yr
A	959	197	₦1.24bn	₦1.15bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	20,685	13,446	₦223bn	₦163bn	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	188	181	₦6.65bn	₦6.07bn	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	98	94	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	3	1	₦120k	₦120k	31%	3.4 yr
Worship	1	1	₦555k	₦555k	45%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	5,356	3,194	₦20.9bn	₦17.9bn	57%	1.9 yr
100 250m2	5,239	4,063	₦89.3bn	₦65.7bn	59%	1.9 yr
Under 30m2	4,570	2,758	₦816m	₦764m	55%	1.9 yr
30 50m2	3,762	1,965	₦2.53bn	₦2.21bn	37%	2.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,018	1,716	₦110bn	₦77.9bn	69%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	30	27	₦7.22bn	₦5.8bn	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	7,709	5,664	₦97.7bn	₦71.8bn	57%	1.9 yr
Dense Urban	7,496	6,644	₦93bn	₦77.4bn	59%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	4,249	907	₦31.5bn	₦16.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	1,521	508	₦9bn	₦5bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	6,977	4,432	₦29.9bn	₦26bn	57%	1.9 yr
Shed	6,846	3,577	₦602m	₦602m	43%	2.4 yr
Residential	5,623	4,391	₦188bn	₦132bn	67%	1.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,239	1,046	₦4.89bn	₦4.89bn	41%	2.6 yr
Institutional	97	93	₦2.48bn	₦2.45bn	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	68	66	₦2.34bn	₦2.34bn	71%	1.4 yr
School	51	49	₦637m	₦637m	71%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	33	31	₦1.7bn	₦1.22bn	63%	1.6 yr
Clinic	29	28	₦316m	₦253m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial	5	5	₦94m	₦94m	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	3	1	₦120k	₦120k	31%	3.4 yr
Compound University	2	2	₦314m	₦314m	47%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	20,759	13,723	₦231bn	₦170bn
Industrial	216	0	₦90.1m	₦63m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	20,782	13,537	₦224bn	₦164bn	55%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	188	181	₦6.65bn	₦6.07bn	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	5	5	₦94m	₦94m	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	8,942	6,769	₦202bn	₦147bn
0.0	6,846	3,577	₦602m	₦602m
2.0	3,518	2,354	₦20.2bn	₦15.6bn
1.0	984	447	₦2.98bn	₦2.02bn
4.0	685	576	₦5.05bn	₦4.8bn