Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Omumma, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Omumma has 21,030 buildings with a viable rooftop and 417 MWp of roof capacity. 29% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

21,030

Usable roof area

1.86 km²

417 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.4bn/yr

11.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Omumma

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦649bn

NPV₦95.7bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy10.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity58.2 MWp

Capex₦59bn

Year-one energy value₦47.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.24tn

NPV₦371bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Omumma's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 58.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦59bn
Year 1 savings: ₦47.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦371bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Omumma pays back quickly

Of the 20,973 buildings in Omumma with a modelled payback, 67.0% pay back inside five years and 23.3% inside three.

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How much of Omumma's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Omumma consume 20.9 GWh/yr but want 31.3 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Omumma

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Omumma actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 20,973 buildings with a modelled result out of 21,030 in Omumma. 17,145 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,888 (23%)

Under 5 years14,062 (67%)

Under 7 years17,121 (82%)

Under 10 years18,285 (87%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%17,963 (85%)

Above 15%17,145 (82%)

Above 20%15,142 (72%)

Above 25%6,029 (29%)

CO₂ avoided

22.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.84 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

116k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Omumma.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Omumma

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	8,875	2,103	₦5.96bn	₦5.86bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	5,785	1,062	₦3.42bn	₦3.39bn	23%	4.6 yr
A	4,442	2,764	₦2.42bn	₦2.41bn	27%	3.9 yr
C	1,446	108	₦426m	₦426m	23%	4.6 yr
B	482	20	₦159m	₦159m	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	20,627	5,695	₦8.24bn	₦8.12bn	23%	4.6 yr
Anchor	152	135	₦2.78bn	₦2.77bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	132	123	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	47%	2.1 yr
Worship	92	79	₦171m	₦171m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	16	16	₦4.53m	₦4.53m	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	11	9	₦34.2m	₦34.2m	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	6,635	1,959	₦3.85bn	₦3.85bn	25%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	5,759	1,564	₦821m	₦821m	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	4,142	1,134	₦112m	₦111m	9%	9.6 yr
30 50m2	2,994	774	₦148m	₦148m	17%	6.1 yr
250 1000m2	1,461	597	₦5.01bn	₦4.88bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	39	29	₦2.45bn	₦2.45bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	12,273	2,568	₦7.37bn	₦7.34bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	7,221	3,419	₦4.35bn	₦4.34bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	1,210	64	₦625m	₦529m	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	325	5	₦29.6m	₦29.6m	23%	4.6 yr
Urban Centre	1	1	₦3.32m	₦3.32m	71%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	8,311	2,475	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	6,593	1,943	₦6.98bn	₦6.85bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	5,722	1,277	₦129m	₦129m	9%	9.6 yr
Institutional	121	109	₦2.04bn	₦2.03bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	52	46	₦805m	₦805m	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial	42	42	₦354m	₦354m	43%	2.6 yr
School	37	34	₦226m	₦226m	69%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	32	26	₦23.9m	₦23.9m	63%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	30	25	₦510m	₦505m	51%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	29	26	₦14m	₦14m	63%	1.6 yr
Clinic	21	18	₦91.6m	₦91.6m	49%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	16	16	₦4.53m	₦4.53m	41%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	20,864	5,950	₦12.2bn	₦12.1bn
Industrial	166	107	₦174m	₦174m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	20,826	5,872	₦9.22bn	₦9.09bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	162	143	₦2.81bn	₦2.8bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	42	42	₦354m	₦354m	43%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	8,000	2,764	₦10.7bn	₦10.5bn
2.0	6,022	1,632	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn
0.0	5,723	1,277	₦129m	₦129m
1.0	1,253	352	₦121m	₦121m
4.0	32	32	₦329m	₦329m