Rivers State

Rooftop solar in Ahoada West, Rivers: what the roofs are worth

Ahoada West has 19,758 buildings with a viable rooftop and 377 MWp of roof capacity. 44% run a generator, and together they spend ₦72.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

19,758

Usable roof area

1.68 km²

377 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦72.8bn/yr

61.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ahoada West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦72.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦64bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.15tn

NPV₦493bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy23.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity142 MWp

Capex₦147bn

Year-one energy value₦116bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.36tn

NPV₦892bn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ahoada West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 142 MWp
Capital cost: ₦147bn
Year 1 savings: ₦116bn/yr
NPV: ₦892bn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ahoada West pays back quickly

Of the 19,694 buildings in Ahoada West with a modelled payback, 81.9% pay back inside five years and 40.4% inside three.

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How much of Ahoada West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ahoada West consume 99 GWh/yr but want 122 GWh/yr. The 19% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ahoada West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ahoada West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 19,694 buildings with a modelled result out of 19,758 in Ahoada West. 17,816 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,960 (40%)

Under 5 years16,127 (82%)

Under 7 years17,796 (90%)

Under 10 years18,459 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%18,326 (93%)

Above 15%17,816 (90%)

Above 20%16,537 (84%)

Above 25%9,852 (50%)

CO₂ avoided

107 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

35.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

313k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ahoada West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ahoada West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	6,620	3,172	₦26.4bn	₦24.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	5,384	2,467	₦16.2bn	₦14.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	3,072	1,508	₦15.3bn	₦10.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	2,913	961	₦12.8bn	₦12.2bn	25%	4.6 yr
A	1,769	536	₦2.13bn	₦2.05bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	18,829	7,913	₦66.7bn	₦58.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	360	299	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	215	172	₦4bn	₦3.61bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	180	140	₦367m	₦367m	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	118	94	₦23.3m	₦23.3m	49%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	24	7	₦15.2m	₦15.2m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	22	15	₦79.5m	₦79.5m	47%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	9	3	₦38.8m	₦37.8m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦233k	₦233k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	5,681	2,796	₦32.6bn	₦29bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	5,282	2,163	₦5.94bn	₦5.67bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	4,026	1,586	₦638m	₦627m	21%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	3,315	1,256	₦1.14bn	₦1.08bn	25%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,428	821	₦28.6bn	₦24.2bn	47%	2.4 yr
Over 1000m2	26	22	₦3.9bn	₦3.39bn	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	9,034	5,151	₦33.6bn	₦31.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
Urban	5,433	2,119	₦18.3bn	₦16.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	2,838	685	₦8.42bn	₦7.28bn	25%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	2,453	689	₦12.4bn	₦9bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	8,202	3,819	₦10.2bn	₦9.79bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	5,372	2,602	₦56bn	₦48bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	4,354	1,372	₦174m	₦174m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Formal	901	120	₦274m	₦274m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	206	180	₦735m	₦726m	51%	2.1 yr
Institutional	169	137	₦2.98bn	₦2.75bn	47%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	140	100	₦37m	₦37m	49%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	89	66	₦84.7m	₦84.7m	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	80	65	₦796m	₦796m	67%	1.6 yr
School	61	51	₦311m	₦311m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	47	38	₦45.2m	₦45.2m	53%	2.1 yr
Clinic	35	24	₦386m	₦287m	41%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	19,681	8,644	₦72.7bn	₦63.9bn
Industrial	60	0	₦30.3m	₦30.3m
Farmyard	17	0	₦10.3m	₦10.3m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	19,317	8,277	₦67.9bn	₦59.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	223	189	₦797m	₦787m	51%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	218	178	₦4.03bn	₦3.64bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	7,232	3,325	₦15.6bn	₦13.4bn
3.0	4,388	2,559	₦54.4bn	₦47.9bn
0.0	4,360	1,378	₦176m	₦176m
1.0	2,919	1,162	₦1.59bn	₦1.47bn
4.0	843	204	₦857m	₦856m
5.0	12	12	₦125m	₦125m
6.0	4	4	₦74.5m	₦66.4m