Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Ondo State: buildings, spend and payback

1,137,082 buildings in Ondo State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦725bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 31% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

1,137,082

Usable roof area

115 km²

25.9 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦725bn/yr

625 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ondo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦725bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦707bn

Lifetime cash saved₦37.4tn

NPV₦5.63tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy556 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity2.56 GWp

Capex₦2.58tn

Year-one energy value₦2.07tn

Lifetime energy value₦97.4tn

NPV₦16.2tn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ondo State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 2.56 GWp
Capital cost: ₦2.58tn
Year 1 savings: ₦2.07tn/yr
NPV: ₦16.2tn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ondo State pays back quickly

Of the 1,113,905 buildings in Ondo State with a modelled payback, 66.6% pay back inside five years and 29.2% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

66.6%

Payback under 3 years

29.2%

IRR above 20%

69.1%

Under 3 years · 29%3 – 5 years · 37%5 – 7 years · 13%7 – 10 years · 7%Over 10 years · 14%

Coverage: 98% of buildings in Ondo State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Ondo State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ondo State consume 1.17 TWh/yr but want 1.73 TWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 68%Suppressed · 32%

Energy wanted

1.73 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

1.17 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

556 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Ondo State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 1,113,905 buildings with a modelled result out of 1,137,082 in Ondo State. 885,981 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years325,301 (29%)

Under 5 years741,909 (67%)

Under 7 years884,937 (79%)

Under 10 years963,225 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%950,554 (84%)

Above 15%885,981 (78%)

Above 20%785,898 (69%)

Above 25%566,524 (50%)

Electricity billing bands in Ondo State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ondo State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	469,760	139,754	₦424bn	₦409bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	310,050	101,379	₦111bn	₦111bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	282,093	99,316	₦162bn	₦161bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	72,704	13,171	₦23.7bn	₦23.1bn	23%	4.4 yr
A	2,475	361	₦3.8bn	₦3.78bn	23%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	1,096,369	330,900	₦550bn	₦536bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	19,429	10,883	₦91.2bn	₦90.3bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	9,372	4,257	₦1.62bn	₦1.62bn	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	7,079	5,020	₦73.8bn	₦70.7bn	53%	2.1 yr
Worship	3,504	2,257	₦3.99bn	₦3.99bn	51%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	497	237	₦2.86bn	₦2.78bn	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	384	235	₦1.02bn	₦998m	43%	2.4 yr
Productive Use	221	120	₦94.8m	₦94.8m	57%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	153	56	₦147m	₦147m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	63	11	₦87.6m	₦87.6m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	11	5	₦12.3m	₦12.3m	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	389,596	132,590	₦282bn	₦277bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	262,305	74,969	₦8.17bn	₦8.03bn	11%	7.6 yr
50 100m2	211,823	54,098	₦36.1bn	₦34.7bn	25%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	141,364	37,909	₦8.99bn	₦8.41bn	19%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	130,512	53,652	₦329bn	₦321bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	1,482	763	₦60.6bn	₦57.9bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	596,743	195,290	₦252bn	₦250bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	180,978	32,036	₦110bn	₦100bn	21%	4.9 yr
Dense Urban	145,033	54,566	₦141bn	₦140bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	137,135	47,337	₦153bn	₦150bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	77,193	24,752	₦69.1bn	₦66.9bn	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	260,201	77,452	₦54.8bn	₦54.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	223,132	91,132	₦405bn	₦393bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	206,053	61,366	₦44.5bn	₦42.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	195,354	50,755	₦6.62bn	₦6.62bn	9%	9.4 yr
Residential Informal	166,550	36,983	₦31.9bn	₦31.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	33,071	9,523	₦5.32bn	₦5.32bn	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	11,997	3,686	₦2.08bn	₦2.08bn	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	9,539	4,357	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	7,013	4,218	₦33.9bn	₦33.3bn	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	6,605	3,043	₦34.8bn	₦34.6bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	4,644	3,398	₦52.9bn	₦51.6bn	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	2,442	1,804	₦12.1bn	₦12.1bn	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	1,136,746	353,814	₦725bn	₦706bn
Industrial	224	162	₦455m	₦455m
Retail	75	0	₦3.03m	₦3.03m
Farmland	33	5	₦50.6m	₦50.6m
Commercial	4	0	₦4.39k	₦4.39k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	1,115,765	341,442	₦581bn	₦567bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	13,978	7,355	₦69.2bn	₦68.4bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	7,339	5,184	₦74.4bn	₦71.4bn	53%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	363,540	105,770	₦140bn	₦138bn
3.0	359,886	138,794	₦480bn	₦465bn
0.0	189,762	48,958	₦6.15bn	₦6.15bn
2.0	163,973	43,848	₦45.7bn	₦44.5bn
1.0	51,372	12,525	₦5.88bn	₦5.85bn
5.0	6,850	3,122	₦27.1bn	₦26.9bn
6.0	1,699	964	₦20.5bn	₦19.9bn