Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Akure North, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Akure North has 81,884 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2 GWp of roof capacity. 22% run a generator, and together they spend ₦20.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

81,884

Usable roof area

8.89 km²

2 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦20.4bn/yr

18.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Akure North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦20.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦20.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.12tn

NPV₦162bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy22.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity96.5 MWp

Capex₦92.2bn

Year-one energy value₦65.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.07tn

NPV₦500bn

Median IRR77%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Akure North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 96.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦92.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦65.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦500bn
Median IRR: 77%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Akure North pays back quickly

Of the 77,300 buildings in Akure North with a modelled payback, 54.5% pay back inside five years and 20.9% inside three.

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How much of Akure North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Akure North consume 42.8 GWh/yr but want 65.3 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Akure North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Akure North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 77,300 buildings with a modelled result out of 81,884 in Akure North. 57,868 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years16,146 (21%)

Under 5 years42,110 (54%)

Under 7 years57,772 (75%)

Under 10 years65,879 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%64,748 (79%)

Above 15%57,868 (71%)

Above 20%46,086 (56%)

Above 25%35,343 (43%)

CO₂ avoided

40.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.13 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

22.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

115k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Akure North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Akure North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	26,742	5,714	₦4.06bn	₦4.06bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	18,998	2,998	₦3.01bn	₦3.01bn	19%	4.9 yr
E	18,762	5,980	₦10.1bn	₦10.1bn	23%	4.4 yr
D	15,583	3,273	₦2.83bn	₦2.83bn	23%	4.9 yr
A	1,799	9	₦366m	₦354m	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	79,540	16,861	₦9.24bn	₦9.23bn	21%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	1,259	581	₦4.79bn	₦4.77bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	512	206	₦67.5m	₦67.5m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	330	219	₦5.86bn	₦5.85bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	157	80	₦58.4m	₦58.4m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	47	10	₦304m	₦304m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	19	5	₦24.2m	₦24.2m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	12	9	₦44m	₦44m	53%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	6	2	₦22.3m	₦22.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦971k	₦971k	31%	3.6 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦45.3k	₦45.3k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	29,341	6,460	₦5.34bn	₦5.33bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	18,949	4,066	₦349m	₦349m	11%	6.6 yr
50 100m2	12,917	2,522	₦598m	₦598m	17%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	10,612	2,882	₦8.7bn	₦8.7bn	25%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	9,920	2,001	₦265m	₦265m	15%	6.9 yr
Over 1000m2	145	43	₦5.15bn	₦5.13bn	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	58,267	12,591	₦11.6bn	₦11.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	9,482	2,378	₦4.97bn	₦4.97bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	8,971	1,979	₦2.69bn	₦2.68bn	19%	5.4 yr
Dense Urban	4,068	922	₦936m	₦931m	21%	5.1 yr
Rural	1,096	104	₦244m	₦244m	9%	9.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	18,906	5,591	₦6.71bn	₦6.71bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	17,009	2,702	₦899m	₦899m	21%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	15,552	3,921	₦629m	₦629m	17%	5.9 yr
Shed	13,919	2,880	₦363m	₦363m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Informal	10,591	1,270	₦485m	₦485m	19%	5.1 yr
Apartment	2,605	348	₦110m	₦110m	23%	4.6 yr
Duplex	957	148	₦43.2m	₦43.2m	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial	627	318	₦2.84bn	₦2.83bn	37%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	513	207	₦67.5m	₦67.5m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	226	48	₦431m	₦431m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	202	141	₦4.5bn	₦4.5bn	43%	2.4 yr
Unknown	194	85	₦603m	₦603m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	81,875	17,972	₦20.4bn	₦20.3bn
Farmland	8	2	₦28.3m	₦28.3m
Industrial	1	0	₦840k	₦840k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	80,660	17,378	₦11bn	₦11bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	885	371	₦3.51bn	₦3.49bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	339	225	₦5.87bn	₦5.86bn	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	31,984	8,551	₦13.1bn	₦13.1bn
4.0	24,014	3,785	₦3.98bn	₦3.97bn
0.0	13,838	2,878	₦359m	₦359m
2.0	9,492	2,070	₦442m	₦442m
1.0	2,059	527	₦76.2m	₦76.2m
5.0	282	95	₦861m	₦856m
6.0	215	68	₦1.55bn	₦1.54bn