Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Okitipupa, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Okitipupa has 71,322 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.6 GWp of roof capacity. 49% run a generator, and together they spend ₦68.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

71,322

Usable roof area

7.13 km²

1.6 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦68.6bn/yr

58.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Okitipupa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦68.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦67.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.51tn

NPV₦521bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy37 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity178 MWp

Capex₦184bn

Year-one energy value₦136bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.43tn

NPV₦1.05tn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Okitipupa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 178 MWp
Capital cost: ₦184bn
Year 1 savings: ₦136bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.05tn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Okitipupa pays back quickly

Of the 70,564 buildings in Okitipupa with a modelled payback, 75.8% pay back inside five years and 45.3% inside three.

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How much of Okitipupa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Okitipupa consume 104 GWh/yr but want 141 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Okitipupa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Okitipupa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 70,564 buildings with a modelled result out of 71,322 in Okitipupa. 61,404 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years31,998 (45%)

Under 5 years53,470 (76%)

Under 7 years61,330 (87%)

Under 10 years64,831 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%64,341 (90%)

Above 15%61,404 (86%)

Above 20%55,956 (78%)

Above 25%36,307 (51%)

CO₂ avoided

119 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

35.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

37 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

294k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Okitipupa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Okitipupa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	34,530	17,711	₦35bn	₦34.8bn	35%	3.1 yr
C	20,271	10,571	₦9.45bn	₦9.44bn	29%	3.9 yr
E	16,071	6,626	₦18bn	₦17.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	398	329	₦3.09bn	₦3.09bn	37%	3.1 yr
B	52	50	₦2.98bn	₦2.59bn	47%	2.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	70,289	34,523	₦56.5bn	₦56.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Anchor	450	352	₦7.22bn	₦7bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	393	297	₦4.21bn	₦3.83bn	43%	2.6 yr
Worship	115	56	₦116m	₦116m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Retail	31	28	₦18.1m	₦18.1m	45%	2.4 yr
Industrial	22	14	₦53.8m	₦53.8m	43%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	16	14	₦415m	₦376m	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	3	0	₦1.19m	₦1.19m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦3.35m	₦3.35m	43%	2.6 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦2.47m	₦2.47m	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	26,246	13,790	₦27.4bn	₦27.4bn	35%	3.1 yr
Under 30m2	15,928	7,369	₦836m	₦834m	19%	5.1 yr
50 100m2	12,872	5,724	₦3.12bn	₦3.12bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	9,026	4,070	₦919m	₦917m	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	7,157	4,267	₦29bn	₦28.7bn	41%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	93	67	₦7.19bn	₦6.82bn	43%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	40,203	20,801	₦32.2bn	₦32.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
Urban	11,568	6,295	₦13.4bn	₦13.4bn	51%	2.1 yr
Dense Urban	10,804	5,574	₦10.1bn	₦10.1bn	37%	2.9 yr
Unclassified	8,084	2,148	₦7.38bn	₦7.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	663	469	₦5.4bn	₦5bn	37%	2.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	21,805	10,264	₦7.41bn	₦7.41bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	15,463	9,268	₦41.9bn	₦41.8bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	12,895	6,867	₦4.45bn	₦4.45bn	51%	1.9 yr
Shed	11,669	4,969	₦671m	₦671m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Informal	4,815	1,296	₦900m	₦900m	25%	4.6 yr
Apartment	2,803	1,370	₦849m	₦849m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	839	489	₦347m	₦347m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	284	216	₦5.43bn	₦5.39bn	41%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	176	138	₦947m	₦947m	59%	1.9 yr
School	141	111	₦509m	₦509m	59%	1.9 yr
Unknown	73	47	₦291m	₦291m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	66	57	₦2.93bn	₦2.55bn	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	71,269	35,234	₦68.5bn	₦67.7bn
Industrial	53	53	₦107m	₦107m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	70,777	34,860	₦58.2bn	₦58bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	463	360	₦7.26bn	₦7.04bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	82	67	₦3.15bn	₦2.75bn	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	25,519	11,853	₦11.6bn	₦11.5bn
3.0	24,840	14,251	₦50.4bn	₦50.1bn
0.0	11,637	4,948	₦660m	₦660m
2.0	7,834	3,596	₦2.81bn	₦2.81bn
1.0	1,440	589	₦213m	₦213m
5.0	30	30	₦722m	₦716m
6.0	22	20	₦2.2bn	₦1.81bn